UP: People Chose ‘Nationalism’ Over ‘Caste’
Saurabh Sharma/Abdul Alim Jafri
Experts in Uttar Pradesh believe that voters chose the issue of ‘nationalism’ over ‘caste’ in the state.
Earlier it was seen as a tough battle between the BJP and the Gathbandhan, the alliance of Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), as the caste factor of Jatav, Yadav and Muslims seemed heavily in favour of the alliance.
P Dubey, a veteran journalist says,”The BJP has this hunger of winning the seats and they believe in hard work. They have won the elections by their hard work and this win should be credited to the party, including the IT cell, which played an important part in brainwashing the real issues and feeding people with feeds on Pulwama, Ujjwala scheme and others.”
Another political observer, Dr Rudra feels this is the victory of ‘nationalism’ over caste politics.
“Earlier it was being assumed that the combination of SP-BSP-RLD will make a deadly caste combination and defeat the BJP, but people chose the issue of ‘nationalism’ which BJP’s major poll. The BJP top brass was very vocal about the issue, especially the ‘enemy’ nation, Pakistan’ and it succeeded,” he says, adding the people are highly emotional about the nation and this seems to be the major reason behind BJP sweeping a major chunk of the Lok Sabha seats.
He further says that the ‘Chowkidar Chor Hai’ campaign by the Congress boomeranged on the Congress as also the Gathbandhan. “The alliance also used the Congress campaign…. The environment of hate against a lone man, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, helped him in getting sympathy votes even from areas where BJP was not in a good position,” he adds.
On being asked if it is the end of ‘caste politics’, he said it would be too early to say anything on this as of now, as there was a lot of difference between Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections.
In Purvanchal, BJP dominated 27 out of 29 seats. The mahagathbandhan (grand alliance), which looked strong on paper mainly due to its victories in crucial by-elections last year through near-perfect vote transfers, has not clicked in the Lok Sabha seats. Though, former SP chief Akhilesh Yadav was leading against BJP’s Dinesh Lal Yadav from Azamgarh.
In CM Adityanath's bastion, actor turned politician Ravi Kishen, was set to win while Congress heavyweight RPN Singh was trailing by alliance candidate from Kushinagar.
Abhay Kumar Dubey, senior political analyst told Newsclick, "Modi's nationalism has worked in Uttar Pradesh and people voted him on this basis only,” adding that Congress had given a walk-over to BJP for not being part of alliance.
Accepting the mandate, SP spokesperson Abdul Hafiz Gandhi told Newsclick that, “The results have certainly made us think and introspect. We will learn lessons from this mandate and continue working and raising the issues of people,” he said.
Maharashtra Goes to BJP-Sena Again
With nationalism and majoritarian politics giving BJP a huge support, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance was leading on 40 seats. The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) won four seats whereas it was leading on two seats. Congress was winning one and Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi, led by Prakash Ambedkar and Asaduddin Owaisi, was leading.
The results have clearly indicated that the state’s voters went with issues related to national security and nationalism over the agrarian crisis, unemployment and other issues. In 2014, the BJP-Sena lead alliance had won 42 seats. This time it's tally will be almost similar.
Congress bigwigs like former chief ministers Ashok Chavan and Sushilkumar Shinde were trailing. However, NCP's Supriya Sule won while her nephew Parth Pawar lost his first election.
Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis said the massive verdict created pressure to deliver for people now. NCP chief Sharad Pawar accepted the defeat and said that the analysis will be done later, adding that party and Congress had more expectations from this election.
The opposition alliance felt that vote division by the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi helped BJP register this victory.
Shiv Sena, also did well but its only minister in the Cente Anant Gite lost to NCP candidate but somehow the performance of the tiger party is also similar to 2014.
Mumbai's all six seats are either won or lead hy BJP Shiv Sena. Congress Mumbai Chief Milind Deora, bollywood actress Urmila Matondkar, Priya Dutt and others trailing with almost one lakh and more margin everywhere.
Madhya Pradesh: BJP set to win 28 out of 29 seats
By 4:45 pm, according to the Election Commission of India, the BJP was leading on 28 seats and the Congress’s Chhindwara candidate and son of Chief Minister Kamal Nath, Nukul Nath was leading with a margin of 40,000.
Besides, Chief Minister Kamal Nath, who was contesting by-election from Chhindwara Assembly seat, won the seat against BJP’s Banti Sahu.
Senior BJP leaders like Narendra Singh Tomar (Morena), Rakesh Singh (Jabalpur), Prahlad Singh Patel (Damoh) and Nandkumar Chouhan (Khandwa) were leading with huge margins. Pragya Thakur, who was contesting from Bhopal, was leading with a margin of three lakh votes against Congress veteran leader Digvijay Singh.
The Congress received the biggest shock from Guna constituency where Jyotiraditya Scindia, who was winning this seat since 2003, was trailing by over 1.3 lakh votes.
Out of total voting percentage, till date, the BJP has received 49.4 % votes, while the Congress has received 42.6 %, according to the ECI.
In 2014, with 27 seats in its kitty, the BJP has cornered a vote share of 54% while the Congress which won only two seats Guna and Chhindwara had secured 34.9 % of the total votes.
Madhya Pradesh has recorded whopping 11% upsurge in overall voting percentage this election. Till 4.45 pm, Though, only 65 - 75 % votes were counted.
North-East: Despite Citizenship Bill, BJP Set to Win
Vivan Eyben/Sandipan Talukdar
The anti-Citizenship Amendment Bill (CAB) protests temporarily united the people of North-East and seemed to have succeeded in painting the BJP into a corner. However, the results show a rather mixed picture. Apart from the Lok Sabha polls, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh held their Legislative Assembly elections as well. In Sikkim the ruling Sikkim Democratic Front (SDF) has been battling a growing anti-incumbency sentiment, whereas in Arunachal Pradesh, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is seeking to establish its legitimacy after the coup it pulled in 2016. As of 5 PM, the trend seems to be that the BJP and its allies will win around 15 Lok Sabha seats out of 25 for the entire Northeast.
Assam: Till afternoon, Assam seemed to offer majority of the seats to BJP. Starting from the Upper Assam region of the Brahmaputra Valley, key constituencies—Dibrugarh, Lakhimpur, Jorhat, Tezpur -- were set to go to the BJP, though Congress was giving a tough fight in Jorhat and Tezpur at one point of time.
In Lakhimpur and Dibrugarh constituencies, BJP’s Pradan Baruah and Rameswar Teli were leading by over 3 lakh votes, while in Jorhat, BJP’s Topon Kumar Gogoi is leading in over 77,000 over Congress.
In Middle Assam region, Kaliabor was once again set to go to Congress, with sitting MP Gaurav Gogoi leading by over one lakh votes. Pradyut Bordoloi of Congress was in tough contest with BJP’s Rupak Sarma, leading with a very thin margin of just 459 votes. The Mangoldoi constituency, BJP’s traditional seat in Assam, does not seem to have any deviation, where Dilip Saikia was leading by over 2 lakh votes over Bhubaneswar Kalita, a Rajya Sabha MP from Assam and the ex-APCC president.
In the crucial Gauhati constituency, BJP’s Queen Oja was leading over her nearest opponent Bobeeta Sarma of Congress.
The Dhubri constituency, the traditional seat of Badaruddin Ajmal, the AIUDF chief, is again set to be won by him. Ajmal is leading in over 1.8 lakh votes than Abu Taher Bepari of INC.
In Kokrajhar, the seat in BTAD (Bodoland territorial area districts), the seating MP Naba Kumar Sarania is all set to win once again. Sarania was the independent candidate from here and he is leading in over 50 thousand votes than Pramila Rani Brahma, the BJP-BPF joint candidate.
In Silchar, BJP’s Rajdeep Roy was ahead of Sushmita Dev of Congress in more than 60 thousand votes. Sushmita Dev was the winning candidate in 2014 from here.
Karimganj this time is witnessing tight fight between BJP and AIUDF. Radhesyam Biswas of AIUDF, the seating MP form here is trailing in just 140 votes than his nearest contender Kripanath Mallah of BJP. In 2014, AIUDF won this seat with a margin of over a lakh votes.
Arunachal Pradesh: As of 4:41 PM, the BJP was leading in both Lok Sabha seats with Kiren Rijiju for Arunachal West and Tapir Gao in Arunachal West. The saffron party is also leading in the 30 Assembly seats for which there is information. The BJP was able to win 10 seats and was leading in 11. The Congress was leading in only three seats. Arunachal Pradesh has a 60- member Assembly.
Manipur: For the tribal majority Outer Manipur constituency, the Naga People’s Front (NPF) is in the lead. The NPF has announced an ‘in principle’ split with the BJP led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) after the elections. However, if a BJP victory in Parliament is imminent that split may never occur. For the Inner Manipur constituency, the BJP candidate Rajkumar Ranjan Singh is in the lead.
Meghalaya: The trend in Meghalaya is fairly predictable. For the Shillong constituency the incumbent Congress candidate, Vincent H Pala is in the lead. In Tura, the National People’s Party (NPP) candidate Agatha K Sangma is leading. Both these constituencies are the respective fiefdoms of the leading candidates.
Mizoram: Mizoram despite never showing any discerning trends in voter behaviour has the Mizo National Front candidate C Lalrosanga in the lead. His lead may be influenced by the MNF-led state government’s decision to reintroduce the ban on liquor.
Nagaland: The Congress candidate, KL Chishi is in the lead in Nagaland. His lead may be influenced by the decision of the NPF in the state to back him. The NPF is not contesting the present elections.
Sikkim: In Sikkim the Sikkim Krantikari Morcha (SKM) is leading in the Lok Sabha race. Indra Hang Subba began his electoral journey with Baichung Bhutia’s Hamro Sikkim Party (HSP), however he became the face of the SKM’s Lok Sabha campaign. As of 5:08 PM, the SKM has won 8 seats and is leading in 4 for the 32-member Legislative Assembly. The incumbent Sikkim Democratic Front (SDF) has won 3 seats and is leading in 6. However, information is only available for 21 constituencies at present.
Tripura: The BJP is leading in both Lok Sabha seats for Tripura East and Tripura West.
Kerala: Congress-led UDF Sweeps
As the counting of votes were on in Kerala, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) was set to win 19 seats out of total 20 with a clear majority. While the ruling Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) settled with one seat.
The BJP, which has been trying to make inroads in the state, failed to win even a single seat in the state unlike in the rest of the country, except Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh. BJP which had taken up the Sabarimala issues following the Supreme Court judgement allowing the entry all women in the Sabarimala temple succeeded, to an extent, in playing the communal card in the state.
"Our campaign was centered around the anti-BJP government and this turned out to be a blessing for the Congress here... Minority votes have gone to the Congress," said Kodiyeri Balakrishnan, the state secretary of CPI(M) while addressing the media.
"We accept this setback which was least expected. Our state committee will introspect on this reverse and if we have done anything wrong, we will correct it,” he said, adding that he also regretted the reverses that the Congress suffered nationally.
E.P. Jayarajan, senior CPI(M) cabinet minister in the Pinarayi Vijayan government, pointed out at religious consolidation, which favoured the UDF.
Congress president Rahul Gandhi, who contested from Wayanad constituency in the North Kerala scripted history with a lead of more than four lakh votes against PP Sunner of Communist Party of India.
Including Rahul Gandhi, nine UDF candidates have secured the victory over the margin of one lakh votes. PK Kunjhalikkutty and ET Mohammed Basheer of Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) from Malappuram and Ponnani respectively, Remya Haridas from Alathur, Benny Behanan from Chalakkudy, Hibi Eden from Ernakulam, Dean Kuriakose from Idukki, Thomas Chazhikkadan from Kottayam and NK Premachandran from Kollam emerged victorious over the margin of one lakh vote.
From the LDF camp, AM Arif from Alappuzha defeated Shanimol Usman of Congress. Except Thiruvananthapuram where Congress’s Shashi Tharoor marked his victory for the third time, BJP has landed at third place.
Gujarat: BJP Set to Win All 26 seats
BJP is set to repeat its performance of 2014 Lok Sabha election as the party is set to bag all 26 Lok Sabha seats in Gujarat. All the big leaders of Congress – former Union Minister BharatSinh Solanki, Gujarat Peadesh Congress Committee Chief Amit Chavda and Leader of Opposition Paresh Dhanani are trailing behind.
BJP President Amit Shah who was candidate from Gandhinagar seat of Central Gujarat, an erstwhile seat of BJP veteran LK Advani, is leading by 555146 crossing the margin of 483121 record win of Advani from the seat in 2014. BJP is also winning in Ahmedabad East and Anand, other important seats of Central Gujarat. Congress veteran leader is trailing behind BJP’s Mitesh Patel, an industrialist and first timer who is leading by a margin of 197837 votes while in Ahmedabad East BJP’s Hasmukh Patel is leading by 294123 while Geetaben Patel of Congress is trailing.
In Kutch, BJP’s Vinod Chavda is leading over Congress’s Naresh Maheshwari by 300170 votes.
In Saurashtra, BJP seems to have made a comeback where the party had lost seats during Assembly polls. Water crisis, agrarian distress and after affect of Patidar agitation that had cost BJP seats in Assembly election in December 2017 did not seem to affect Lok Sabha voting in the region.
In Surendranagar, a district that is facing acute agrarian crisis and is draught hit, BJP’s candidate a first timer and doctor by profession, Mahendrabhai Munjpara is leading over Congress’s Somabhai Patel by 180545 votes.
In Amreli, another district hit by acute water crisis in both rural and urban areas, Congress heavy weight and Leader of Opposition Paresh Dhanani is losing the seat to BJP’s Naran Kachhadia by 268038 votes. Noticeably Dhanani has won the Amreli assembly seat in the years 2002, 2012 and 2017.
In North Gujarat, that was the epicentre of Patidar agitation and witnessed the rise of Alpesh Thakor, the affect of the duo seemed to have phased out with Alpesh quitting Congress and Hardik joining the party.
In South Gujarat, the toughest contest was for the seat of Bharuch where apart from BJP and Congress, Chotubhai Vasava of Bharatiya Tribal Party is contesting. However, BJP’s Mansukh Vasava is leading by 330279 votes over Congress while Chotubhai Vasava has bagged 14207 votes so far.
In Surat, another strong hold of BJP, party’s candidate Darshana Jardosh is winning by 546006 over Congress’s candidate Ashok Adhevada (INC). (All figures from ECI site, updates till 1730 hours)
Odisha: BJD Leading in 12 Seat, BJP in 7
Although Biju Janata Dal (BJD) has got more seats than BJP in Lok Sabha elections it has seen a decline in the number of seats compared to 2014 general elections. BJP has increased the number of seats from 1 to 5. Congress and Left couldn't get a single seat.
In the Assembly elections, the trends have been more or less same with BJP leading in exactly the same number of seats as last time, BJD gaining one seat and Congress losing one seat. CPI(M) is leading in one of the Bonai assembly constituency, in which it has the sitting MLA.
According to Rangacharan Pradhan, the Odisha spokesperson of Aam Aadmi Party, the trends of elections in the state are such because of a large amount of money being used in elections. BJP enjoyed its national resources as well as a very strong rapport with the election commission, which made things easier for them.
However, going against the national trends, BJD could checkmate BJP in the state because it could also bring a section of the media to its side, and used government money through Biju Yuva Bahini and Kalia scheme to counter the enormous amount of money and media that BJP used.
The major news channels in the state are owned by either BJP or BJD members and hence they have been quite helpful in supporting their respective performances in the general as well as legislative elections by airing pro- BJP and BJD news and shaping the news in their favour most of the times.
Also in recent years, Congress hasn't launched a single movement to gain the trust of people and hence it is losing more with every election in the state. The Left has also failed to reach the people and offer them a strong alternative even after conducting movements against all issues of Odisha.
Bengal: BJP Makes Big Inroads, Huge Setback for Left
The Left Front suffered its worst setback after Independence in West Bengal, getting its lowest vote. The ruling Trinamool Congress too received jolt down to 23 from 34 in 2014, while the BJP fared surprisingly well, bagging about 19 seats from the state, where it was able to open its account as late in 1999 in alliance with TMC.
Accepting the mandate, CPI(M) West Bengal State Secretary Surjyakanta said “ It is an unprecedented debacle for the Left in West Bengal after Independence. This result should also be view in the view of the Pan Indian performance of the Left in the country and upswing of the far right in the country.”
He also appealed for maintenance of peace and amity in West Bengal, especially in view of the communally polarised state which has yielded this result.
Congress Reverses Saffron Surge in Punjab
Congress in Punjab, led by Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh, has so far reversed the all India trend of saffron surge, counting trends suggest. The grand old party made a total comeback by leading in at least 8 out of 13 parliamentary seats followed by Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Aam Aadmi Party is expected to win the sole seat of Sangrur with a clear margin.
The trends clearly show that the SAD has failed miserably to rally people behind its candidates as only the members of Badal family could maintain their leads in Ferozpur and Bathinda seats. SAD had fielded Sukhbir Singh Badal and Harsimrat Kaur Badal from Ferozpur and Bathinda, respectively. Its alliance partner BJP, in addition to retaining its seat in Hoshiarpur, is also likely to win the Gurdaspur seat which it had lost in the 2017 by-elections. The lead by the saffron party in Gurdaspur and Hoshiarpur suggests that it is trying to come out of the shadow of Akali Dal, leading to a shift in the power balance between alliance partners.
Experts argue that Congress' gain depended on few factors like absence of stronger contenders and internal rifts in Aam Aadmi Party. Jaswinder Sekhon, professor of Political Sciences at Guru Nanak Dev University told NewsClick that there are few takers of BJP's narrative in the border state. He said, "BJP's narrative does not work in Punjab. It is the common Punjabi who has suffered during the wars with Pakistan. They were displaced every time there were tensions at the border. So, they will never support a party busy in muscle flexing with Pakistan."
He added that the result may reflect in tensions between alliance partners, and BJP will certainly seek more stakes in the state. He also said that people are reluctant to support the Akali Dal after they were discredited for ten years of misgovernance and corruption. Bhiminder Singh, political analyst, said, “The Sikhs, dalits and even the trading Hindu communities have been traditionally voting for Congress and it was evident this time too.”
Commenting on the trail of Sunil Jakhar, Congress' senior most leader from Gurdaspur, he said that the seat was won by Vinod Khanna earlier too. Given the record of the seat, the results are not surprising that Sunny Deol is leading on the seat.
Divided Opposition and Non-Jat Votes Consolidation Helped BJP Win Haryana
Riding on consolidation of non-Jat votes and divided opposition, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to win all 10 parliamentary seats in Haryana. The saffron party, gaining confidence from previous wins in municipal elections and Jind-bypoll, has increased its tally from seven seats in the last elections. The consolidation of non-Jat votes could be gauged from the fact that the Congress is nearly losing its long-held bastion Sonepat, where sitting MP Deependra Singh Huda is trailing now.
Experts maintain that the Congress' inability to mend internal rifts in state leaderships has cost it dearly in Haryana. Kushal Pal, Professor, Dyal Singh College in Karnal told NewsClick that there were several instances where state Congress leadership was found to be involved in consistent infighting. He said, "A conflict of personal ambitions of leaders were visible in the campaign where they appeared as a fractured party. It was coupled with division in the Indian National Lokdal following a feud in the Chautala family. Their reluctance to have an alliance with Jannayak Janata Party and Aam Aadmi Party, too, contributed in this debacle."
He further pointed out that the perception of conducting group D recruitment in a transparent manner also helped BJP in expanding its footprint in rural areas. However, Pal has a different view on whether the results will have an impact on the upcoming Assembly elections. He said,"Its a hard thing to tell. BJP won 28 seats in 2013 in the Delhi Assembly elections. One year later, it won all seven Lok Sabha seats. But it was reduced to three seats next year when AAP swept the Assembly elections. So, it's very difficult to say."
BJP Sweeps All Seven Seats in Delhi
According to the trends shown until 5 PM today in the Election Commission of India website, it has become evident that the Bharatiya Janata Party has swept all seven seats in Delhi, repeating its 2014 victory in the national capital. Riding high on the Modi wave and nationalism, BJP had fielded star campaigners to attract voters, while the Aam Aadmi Party led a campaign on the issue of a full statehood to Delhi and a promise of “clean politics”. The Congress, on the other hand, was heavily banking on its veterans such as Sheila Dikshit and Arvinder Singh Lovely. Voting in the seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi was held in a single phase on May 12, including Chandni Chowk, North East Delhi, East Delhi, New Delhi, North West Delhi, West Delhi, and South Delhi.
BJP’s Meenakshi Lekhi is leading by a margin of over 2 lakh votes and a vote share of 54.78% over Congress’ Ajay Maken in New Delhi, as per the trends in the EC website.
In East Delhi, where the Aam Aadmi Party had fielded Atishi banking on her impressive work in the education sector against BJP’s cricketer-turned-politician Gautam Gambhir and Congress’s Arvinder Singh Lovely, the BJP is leading by over 3 lakh votes. The campaign in East Delhi had witnessed a fierce battle, with a strong smear campaign against AAP’s Atishi.
Speaking of star candidates, BJP’s Manoj Tiwari is leading against Congress’ Sheila Dikshit by over 3 lakh votes in North East Delhi. The margin between the candidates becomes extremely stark if one looks at the North West Delhi constituency where singer Hans Raj Hans is leading over AAP’s Gugan Singh by a margin of over 4.5 lakh votes. A similar trend is visible in the West Delhi constituency where BJP’s Parvesh Sahib Singh Verma leading with over 4 lakh votes against Mahabal Mishra of Congress. BJP is also aiming to retain its stronghold over the Chandni Chowk constituency, however, with the lowest margin of votes out of the seven seats, standing at slightly over 1 lakh.
In the 2015 Assembly polls in Delhi, AAP had swept the national capital, winning 67 out of total 70 seats. BJP, despite the massive 'Modi wave' that had led to the saffron party's thumping win at the centre a year ago in 2014, had managed to win only three seats. Congress was reduced to zero.
YSRCP’s Landslide Victory in Both Assembly and Lok Sabha Polls in Andhra Pradesh
Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRCP) has won a landslide victory in the simultaneous Assembly and Lok Sabha elections in Andhra Pradesh and its leader YS Jagan Mohan Reddy is all set to become the next chief minister of the Telugu-speaking state, replacing N Chandrababu Naidu of the Telugu Desam Party (TDP).
In the poll results announced today, YSRCP was leading in 147 Assembly seats, while TDP was ahead in 27 and Jana Sena in one seat. In parliamentary constituencies, YSRCP was leading in 23 and TDP in 2 seats, at the time of writing.
The verdict can be seen as a major setback for the TDP in the state as its tally in both Assembly and Lok Sabha has come down significantly, as compared to the previous elections.
Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena Party, which contested in alliance with the CPI(M), CPI and BSP, was leading in only one Assembly seat.
YSRCP’s victory has been predicted by numerous opinion polls. After founding YSRCP in 2011, Jagan Mohan Reddy held multiple ‘yatras’ across the state, starting with ‘Odarpu Yatra’ translated as ‘consolation tour’ for the loss of his father and former Chief Minister YS Rajashekar Reddy, helping his party’s ground level cadres and supporters from all corners of the state. In the last five years, in its role as the major opposition party in the state Assembly, its leaders have been vigilant and have raised doubts on almost all the policies and projects taken up by the TDP government. Prashant Kishor’s political consultancy IPAC also helped the party in gaining digital outreach of their promises.
Naidu, during his tenure, had launched numerous infrastructure projects including the construction of a new capital ‘Amaravati’ for the state. While TDP banked on its welfare policies in its campaigning, it attracted criticism for its ‘extravagant’ projects from numerous quarters.
In the previous 2014 elections, out of the total 175 Assembly seats, the TDP had won 102 and the YSRCP had won 67 seats, but the difference between their vote share was just 2.6%. While in previous parliamentary elections, of the total 25 MP seats in the state, TDP won 15 seats, YSRCP won 8 and BJP won 2 seats.
Both Jagan Mohan Reddy and N Chandrababu Naidu contested from their home towns Pulivendula and Kuppam constituencies and emerged victorious. Naidu’s son and former Panchayat Raj Minister Lokesh was trailing from Mangalagiri Assembly constituency.
Of the nearly four crore voters, some 80% had cast their votes in the single-phase polls held on April 11.
In Telangana, TRS Leading in 9 Seats, While BJP Ahead in 4 Seats
In the general elections results announced today, ruling party Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) was leading in 9 seats, while BJP, Congress and AIMIM were ahead in four, three and one seats respectively, at the time of writing.
The results can be seen as a major setback for Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao, popularly known as KCR, as he was confident of winning in 16 of total 17 seats and was in talks with regional stalwarts to form a Third Front dubbed as ‘Federal Front’ in case of a hung parliament, but his attempts went in vain.
Sitting TRS MP from Nizamabad K Kavitha was trailing against BJP candidate Arvind Dharmapuri. While AIMIM head Asaduddin Owaisi retained his Hyderabad MP seat, BJP increased its tally from 1 seat in 2014 to 4 seats. Congress is likely to win in Nalgonda, Bhongir and Malkajgiri constituencies in the state.
Telangana went for early assembly polls in December last year in which TRS emerged victorious with a landslide majority of 88 MLAs out of total 117 seats and secured 47% vote share. BJP got some 7% and Congress and its allies got around 13% vote share.
Telangana went for polls in a single phase on April 11. Of nearly 3 crore voters, 62.7% voting was recorded.
Neelambaran A and Nileena S B
Leading in 23 seats alone along with the 13 seats of their allies, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) clearly took back the state from the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and allies, who had won all the seats from Tamil Nadu in the previous election.
Congress, CPI(M), CPI, VCK and IUML, who were part of the DMK-led Secular Democratic Front (SDF) is leading in 9 (including Puducherry), 2, 2,1 and 1 seats respectively. AIADMK is leading in only one seat and their allies have failed to score any. The one seat is Theni where AIADMK’s Raveendranath Kumar, son of deputy Chief Minister O Panneerselvam is leading.
The trends were clearly favouring the DMK since the beginning of the counting.
The actor-turned-politician Kamal Hasan’s Makkal Neethi Mayyam (MNM) is showing signs that they are a force to be reckoned with. They are placed on third position in 12 constituencies.
The ruling All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) seems to have escaped the byelection scare. The AIADMK is leading in 9 seats while the opposition Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) leads in the remaining 13 seats where the byelections to the Assembly constituencies were held. The AIADMK needed to win a minimum of 4 seats for a simple majority.
Interestingly, the TTV Dhinakaran-led Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK), Kamal Haasan-led Makkal Neethi Maiam (MNM) and Naam Tamizhar Katchi (NTK) have failed to win any seats in the byelections. However, the AMMK has spoiled the AIADMK’s chances in a few seats.
The DMK has alleged, however, that the postal votes in 21 Assembly constituencies are yet to be counted and has submitted a memorandum to the state election commissioner. The DMK has accused the ruling camp of foul play by doing so.
The DMK’s hopes of forming the government have taken a temporary setback. The AIADMK cannot relax since another Member of Legislative Assembly (MLA) N D Venkatachalam has resigned his party post and may join the TTV Dhinakaran-led Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK). The AIADMK cannot relax too much, as two MLAs who belong to other parties and contested in AIADMK symbol are fence-sitting. Leader of Manithaneya Makkal Katchi leader and MLA Thameem Ansari even campaigned for the DMK alliance in the concluded elections. But, the AIADMK did not request the disqualification of these MLAs.
BJP Bags 25 out of 28 Seats in Karnataka
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which had failed to form its government in the state of Karnataka, and is striving day and night to topple the current Congress-Janata Dal (Secular) government in the state, is set to form its government at the Centre yet again. Out of 28 parliamentary constituencies, the BJP has won in 25 constituencies; the Congress has own in Bangalore Rural; and JD(S) in Hassan. An independent candidate from Mandya too has secured a victory. Sumalatha Ambareesh, an independent candidate from Mandya was supported by the BJP.
The election in the state was held in two phases on April 18 and April 23, 2019; while the southern part of the state went to elections on April 18 and the Northern part on April 23, 2019. The BJP had 17 seats, Congress had 12 seats and JD(S) had none. As can be seen above, the BJP has won in most of the constituencies by backing 51.15% of vote shares; the Congress-backed 31.9% and the JD(S) backed 9.87%.
NC Sweeps All 3 Seats in Kashmir, BJP Wins 2 in Jammu and 1 in Ladakh
As per the results declared in the Election Commission of India website, National Conference (NC) has won all 3 Lok Sabha constituencies in Kashmir, meanwhile, Bharatiya Janata Party won two seats in Jammu and one seat in Ladakh.
In Anantnag,which was once a vote hub of the People’s Democratic Party, the party’s president and former Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti was third in the competition, whileNC’s Hasnain Masoodi won with a lead of 7,600 over the state president of Indian National Congress (INC) G A Mir. Masoodi received around 34% votes overall.
In Srinagar constituency, which comprises Ganderbal and Budgam, NC’s president Farooq Abdullah won by 60,000. NC’s Mohammad Akbar Lone overtook independent candidate Engineer Rashid in north Kashmir’s Baramulla district. Lone had a lead of over 22,000 votes against Aijaz Ali of People’s Conference.
BJP topped the list in Jammu, Udhampur and Ladakh constituencies. In Jammu constituency, BJP’s Jitendra Singh who is also a Union Minister, marked his victory with a lead of over 2.8 lakh votes against INC’s Vikram Aditya Singh, grandson of Maharaja Hari Singh. In Jammu, BJP’s Jugal Kishore Sharma won by 2.07 votes.
In Ladakh, BJP marked their victory with a margin of 40,528 votes. Their candidate Jamyang Tsering Namgyal managed to beat Sajjad Hussain independent candidate who got 29,678.
While celebrating the success in Srinagar, Farooq Abdullah talking to reporters said that hopefully new government at Centre will do justice with Jammu and Kashmir and thanked the people of Kashmir for showing their support.
“This Parliament will not be easy. There are several important issues with respect to J-K because we have to fight them on their intention to do away with the Article 370 and 35A. Another issue is that they want to divide the Muslims and Hindus in the country; we have to fight that as well,” the NC chief added.
Talking about NC’s success, people from Anantnag district told NewsClick that the main reason was the complete failure of the PDP government. The civilian killings during 2016 was another reason that the people opted for NC. A female voter, on condition of anonymity, told NewsClick,“This time, we have come forward to show our support to NC,now it depends on them if they will the kill our hopes or keep them alive. Every politician must remember it is only due to the people that they are in power, without our vote and support they are nothing.”
Bihar: Grand Alliance Reduced to 2 Seats
Mohd Imran Khan
Bihar's ruling NDA won 25 of 40 Lok Sabha seats, leading with big margin from 13 seats and opposition Grand Alliance has been leading from only two seats.
All the six Union Ministers, who are BJP candidates including Ravi Shankar Prasad from Patna Sahib seat ,Radha Mohan Singh from East Champaran seat, Ashwani Kumar Choubey from Buxar seat,R K Singh from Arrah seat and Giriraj Singh from Begusarai seat have won and Ram Kirpal Yadav was leading from Patliputra seat.
BJP allies JD-U of chief Minister Nitish Kumar and LJP of Union Minister Ram Vilas Paswan also performed more than was expected.
The BJP was leading in the 17 seats it contested and ally Janata Dal-United (JD-U) was ahead in 15 of the 17 seats it contested.
The other ally Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) was set to win all the six seats it contested.
RJD candidate Surendra Yadav of Grand Alliance was struggling to maintain a little lead from Jehanabad seat and Congress won from Kishanganj, a Muslim dominated seat, considered its stronghold.
Most of the top opposition leaders including former Union Minister Raghuvansh Prasad Singh of RJD was defeated from Vaishali seat. Senior Congress leader Tarique Anwar was defeated from Katihar seat, another senior Congress leader and former Lok Sabha Speaker Meira Kumar was defeated from Sasaram seat.
RJD chief Lalu Prasad’s elder daughter Misa Bharti was trailing from Patliputra seat.
Loktantrik Janata Dal chief Sharad Yadav was defeated from the Madhepura seat, former Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi was defeated from Gaya .
This election result is also bad news for Left parties. Former JNUSU president and CPI candidate from Begusarai was defeated by BJP’s Giriraj Singh. The CPI (ML) candidate from Arrah seat, Raju Yadav, was defeated by Union Minister R K Singh.
A political watcher Satyanarayan Madan said the poll outcome in Bihar was a result of right caste equations and alliance politics on the ground which the BJP-led NDA successfully.
He said Grand Alliance allies including RJD,Congress,RLSP,HAM and VIP failed to woo their social support base and convert them to votes.
Another political activist Anish Ankur pointed out that the election was fought on emotional issues of nationalism and national security and action against terror, ignoring real issues of unemployment and farmer distress.
He said RJD-led Grand Alliance's traditional social support base of Muslims and Yadavs remained intact but support from Kushwahas, an agrarian caste, Mallah and Dalits did not materialise.
The JD-U and BJP's support base among the Economically Backward Classes (EBCs), non-Yadav OBCs and dalits have played an important role. Besides, the saffron party was confident of the overwhelming support of its traditional upper castes.
During counting of votes,violent clash reported from Begusarai and Siwan seat.
However, tension is running high in Begusarai with BJP supporters taking to the streets to celebrate the likely victory of the party and defeat of Kanhaiya Kumar, resulting in some clashes.
Rajasthan: Why Congress Failed to Click
Creating a record of winning Rajasthan for the second consecutive term, the BJP is all set to make a clean sweep in the desert state where it is maintaining a massive lead on all 24 seats with its only ally Rashtriya Loktantrik Party led by Jat leader Hanuman Beniwal, who is contested the elections from Nagore.
The verdict also went against the trend that the political party – which is ruling the state – performs well in the Parliamentary elections here.
All BJP candidates were leading at their respective seats with a margin of over 1 lakh votes. In 15 constituencies, BJP candidates are nearing victory with a huge margin of over 3 lakh votes.
Political commentators credit the BJP’s hyper nationalism, air attack against Pakistan in retaliation to the February 14 terror attack – in which 40 soldiers were killed in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pulwama, and making Congress’ failure to deliver promises and infighting in the state leadership of the grand old party for ensuring the grand success.
“Pulwama attack and retaliatory action against Pakistan had a big message in Rajasthan as it is close to Pakistan borders and a large population from here serve the defense and paramilitary forces. Modi and his party men successfully politicised the martyrdom of jawans. It also helped them to polarize voters in the name of religion – Hindu Vs Muslims,” veteran journalist and academician Narayan Bareth told Newsclick.
Four districts of Rajasthan – Sikar, Churu, Jhunjhunu, Nagore – have huge population in the defence forces. In fact, these seats are controlled by the serving retired soldiers.
Also – he said – the Congress could not perform as expected because of its “inefficiency”.
“During Assembly elections in the state, electorates gave a slogan – Modi Tujhse Bair Nahin, Raani Teri Khair Nahin (Modi, there is no enmity against you but we will ensure Rani’s – former Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje’s – defeat). The BJP kept working on the slogan successfully pursuing people that they defeated Raje, but they don’t have any complaints against Modi, who is performing well. Electorates believed the narrative as the Congress never raised the issue of farm crisis and measurably failed to make it a poll plank. Though they never held any aggressive agitation against hate crimes across the state, yet they managed to win Muslim votes as the community don’t have any options. But consolidation of Muslim votes for the Congress went in favour of the BJP – which successfully won the support of other communities,” he added.
Asked Rajasthan had witnessed several protests against farm distress, he said all these protests were led by the Left – which mobilised people for the cause but failed to convert them into votes. “The problem with the CPI(M) here is it does have cadres to work on the ground. Therefore, they mobilise people for a cause but fail to ensure that they caste their votes in favour of the party,” he explained, adding that had the Congress been raised people’s issues, it would have won the support of common men and the results would have been different.
Anand Chowdhry – a senior journalist – added few more reasons behind the humiliating defeat of the Congress. “The Congress could not resolve the infighting between Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and Deputy Chief Minister Sachin Pilot camps. It resulted in the wrong distribution of tickets. Pilot successfully ensured that his men get ticket so that he can achieve the ambition of becoming the chief minister of the state. It cost Congress a lot and BJP leaders had an easy way to win the polls,” he told Newsclick.
The BJP’s vote share in Rajasthan has gone up to 58.44% in 2019 against 54.95% in 2014. The also managed to improve its vote share from 30.36% in 2014 to 34.27% this year.
Jharkhand: BJP Wins Back Bastion
The BJP – which initially managed to hold the lead in 12 of the 14 seats in Jharkhand, is down in 11 seats. The Opposition alliance (Congress, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, Jharkhand Vikas Morcha, and the Rashtriya Janata Dal) is leading on three seats each.
Jharkhand has traditionally remained a BJP bastion since the early 1990s. The continued victory of the saffron party in the state that it has dominated for decades has been ensured – say experts – because it successfully countered Opposition barbs focused around joblessness, land rights and anger against the state’s tribal population.?
The saffron party has improved its vote share from 40.11% in 2014 to 50% this year.