MP Bypolls: SC, ST Voters Could Favour Congress, Say Experts

Bhopal: Voters from the Schedule Castes and Scheduled Tribes, who have a vote share of between 14% and 50% in 28 assembly seats, are key to the upcoming bypolls on November 3 in Madhya Pradesh.

Out of the 28 assembly seats, nine are reserved for SCs and two for ST candidates. The Congress had won all but the Agar-Malwa constituency in the 2018 state elections.

In ten seats, the vote share of SC/ST voters is between 30% and 50%, while the number ranges between 20% and 30% in twelve seats. The remaining six seats have between 14% to 20% vote-share of SC/ST voters, according to the caste-based data collected by the Congress in a survey. As a result, in 21 seats, the BJP and the Congress have candidates of the dominant caste in the seats.

Out of 28, 16 seats for which bypolls are due are from the Gwalior-Chambal region where Dalit voters, especially those from the Jatav community, are in sizable numbers and expected to play a crucial role.

Bypoll Seats and Caste-Based Vote-Share

Source: Internal survey of the political parties.

Poll watchers believe that the Dalit voter will back the Congress in the same way they did in 2018, as nothing much has changed since.

They believe that the issues like the loan waiver for 26 lakh farmers, 100 units of electricity at Rs 100, the migrant exodus, an economic slowdown due to the lockdown, rampant mismanagement of the COVID-19 pandemic and the recent Farm Laws have gone against the ruling party. Rumours are also doing the rounds that the MLAs who switched over to the BJP were worth Rs 35 crore each.

“Since most of the Dalit voters live in villages and are associated with farming, issues like affordable electricity, the lockdown ordeal, loan waivers and the recently passed Farm Laws will play a vital role in the upcoming bypolls,” believes farmer leader Badal Saroj.

The resignation of 22 Congress MLAs from the government, along with former Union Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia, caused the fall of the 15-month-old Kamal Nath government in the state. Later, three other sitting Congress MLAs followed Scindia to the BJP. Out of the 22 that had switched sides, 15 MLAs happen to be from the Gwalior-Chambal region.

Caste Resurrection

After the Bharat Bandh incident on April 2, 2018 the caste discourse has changed in the State, experts observed.

The bandh was called by Dalit organisations against the Supreme Court’s decision to allegedly dilute the provisions of the Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribe (Prevention of Atrocities) Act, 1989. Dalits groups had held protests across the Gwalior-Chambal region.

However, upper-caste groups attacked the protesters. The resultant violence led to the deaths of six Dalits. As a result, Dalits from the state turned against the BJP, leading to its rout in the assembly elections.

“The Gwalior-Chambal region was a strong hold of the BJP. However, the party faces a humiliating defeat in the region for the first time. The Congress won 27 out of 36 seats assembly seats in the area since Dalits voted to the Congress,” said Rakesh Achal, a veteran journalist from Gwalior.

The Gwalior-Chambal region comprises Gwalior, Bhind, Morena, Sheopur, Datia, Shvipuri, Ashoknagar and Guna.

In addition, the recent gang-rape and murder of a 19-year-old Dalit woman in Hathras, and the way BJP-led Uttar Paradesh government handled a sensitive issue, has made Dalit voters wary. Also, incidents like the vandalising of B.R. Ambedkar’s statues and minor incidents of caste violence keep the resentment alive.

“The BJP has only damaged the social fabric of society and Dalits and Muslims have felt the pinch,” said Rambabu Jatav, a Dalit leader from the region. “After the April 2, 2018, incident, the political discourse of the region as well as the state has entirely changed. The Dalits, who work as daily wagers, seek gun licenses owing to a fear of dominant castes or to take revenge,” he added.

In the aftermath of the April 2 incident, the state police still tortured Dalits who participated in the protest. Many Dalit men, who were falsely framed by the police for inciting violence, continue to remain in jails. As a result, the community turned away from the BJP and voted for the Congress, the Dalit leader said.
“The voting pattern from 2018 is likely to be repeated in the bypolls” he claimed.

Experts say BSP has Lost Ground

The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which once held a strong position in the region, has lost its ground after the emergence of Dalit leader Chandrashekhar Azad. His rise also comes at a time when party chief Mayawati’s silence over Hathras is being questioned, said Gwalior-based journalist and social activist, Ram Vidrohi.

“It seems that the BSP has deserted its supporters and the party’s permanent vote bank has switched over to the Congress,” he said. The BSP does not enjoy the popularity it once did, with Dalit voters of the opinion that the party is acting as a BJP proxy, he added.

In 2018, the BSP only managed to win two seats and it’s vote share drastically declined from previous polls. Vidrohi also believes that the Hathras incident widened the caste-divide ahead of the bypolls.

BJP Attempts to Restore Image among Dalits

To restore the party’s image among Dalit voters, the BJP has made former minister and MLA from Gohad, Lal Singh Arya, the national president of the party’s Anusuchit Jati Morcha.

In a bid to placate the Jatav community, the BJP has given tickets to the three Jatav candidates from Ambah, Gohad and Karera. The Congress, which had declared its candidate list much before the BJP, have also given tickets to three Jatav candidates.

Unhappy Tribals

Aside from the Dalits, members of the tribal community are also unhappy due to the issues like losing their land under the Forest Rights Act, 2006.

In the last six months, the state has recorded more than half a dozen incidents where forest officials assaulted tribals, burned down their crops and swept down an entire tribal village claiming it was illegal encroachment on forest land.

“The way the BJP is giving up tribal habitats and natural resources to industrialists and suppressing them in the name of illegal encroachment, tribal voters may not vote for the ruling party,” said Omkar Singh Markam, a social worker. However, Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan had announced soaps for the community.

The two seats of Anuppur and Nepanagar, which are also up for bypolls, are reserved for members of the tribal community. The Congress won both the seats in the 2018 assembly elections.

“If the Congress succeeds in persuading the Dalit and tribal voters, there is a chance that the party may win more then 15 seats in the assembly elections,” said Rasheed Kidwai, a political commentator.