Union Budget 2019 Live Updates
With the Loksabha elections around the corner, Interim Union Budget 2019 was supposed to be the last opportunity for the Narendra Modi-led BJP Government to do something to fulfil at least a part of the poll promises to the electorate. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party has suffered body blows in the recently held assembly elections to five states. Observers believed that the BJP might be forced to announce some measures to placate farmers and workers who have been joining massive protests across the country against the policies of the Central Government.
The Interim Budget 2019 was presented by Union Minister for Railways Piyush Goyal in the absence of Finance Minister Arun Jaitley who has gone to the United States for treatment. It was widely speculated that the Government might resort to declaring farm loan waivers, new welfare schemes and tax sops to woo the voters. But doing so would require higher fiscal outlays, which might add to the fiscal deficit and worry conservative sections and financial interests which are seen to be supportive of the BJP. Economists were eager to see how the Minister in charge of finance, who has worked as the BJP Treasurer, would tackle the situation.
Meanwhile, the Working People’s Charter - a platform under which groups like Action Aid and Delhi Rozi Roti Andolan has united - has organised a protest in the capital city on the Budget day. Thousands of workers marched to parliament, protesting against the anti-worker policies of the Narendra Modi Government. The workers alleged that Narendra Modi Government follows anti-worker policies and have demanded to raise the minimum wage to Rs. 18000 per month, strengthen the social security of working class and to ensure the right to housing for all.
NewsClick’s Union Budget 2019 Live will present detailed, expert commentary on the budgetary announcements.
Goyal moves on to defence and national security in the time of the Rafale scam. He celebrates the One Rank, One Pension. Meanwhile, retired armed forces personnel are in the forefront of struggles against the government. Over 3 lakh crore has been allotted for the defence budget for the first time.
Goyal claims the transport sector is on the rise and makes the strange argument that this implies employment is rising. It is strange he has chosen not to counter any of the facts from the recent job surveys.
India is now leading the world in consumption of mobile data, Goyal claims. It is unclear what that has to do with government. However, Indian manufacturers have fallen behind in mobile phone production.
Goyal announces perks for film industry, and celebrates Uri which gushed about the government and its ‘surgical strike’. Looks like that selfie with Modi for Bollywood paid off.
Reducing the burden on the middle class has always been our priority, says Goyal. But the real beneficiaries of BJP's policies have been the rich corporates. Corporate taxes as share of India’s GDP has fallen while personal tax has increased even as tax-GDP ratio stagnates.
Goyal celebrates GST despite a number of State governments pointing out how they have suffered from the process. Goyal claims the reduction of GST burden is an "achievement". Is increasing the tax burden first and then reducing it an "achievement"?
Revenue trends are encouraging, says Goyal, talks about an increase in monthly collection. Goyal has spent a lot of time talking about GST, aware of how this is likely to be a major campaign plank against the government, especially in States where regional parties are strong.
Meanwhile reports say that out of 31 states, only Andhra Pradesh and five north eastern states -- Mizoram, Andhra Pradesh, Manipur, Sikkim and Nagaland -- have recorded revenue increase post the GST roll out.
Goyal goes on to demonetisation and black money to major jeers from the house. He attributes rise in tax and base and increase in returns to anti-black money campaigns, a major leap in logic.
So far Goyal has largely spent his speech talking about already existing scheme and it’s primarily been a speech in past tense.
Goyal makes claims of being a 10 crore economy in 8 years, again with no clarity of how these numbers are reached. He promises rural manufacturing hub with digital networks and start-ups. No concrete schemes on this so far.
Full tax rebate announced for individual taxpayers with income up to Rs 5 Lakh per year. The government has gone into full election mode. NDA MPs break into chants of Modi for over a minute, in an eerie display of fandom.
Goyal announces 10-point vision for 2030, largely comprising vague promises. The last point is minimum government, maximum governance, a beloved slogan for the neoliberal regime.
Fiscal deficit is at 3.4% of the GDP for the current year. Total expenditure is 27 Lakh Crore, a rise of over 13.3%. Capital expenditure is over Rs. 3 Lakh Crore. 3.27 Lakh Crores for central scheme. Over 38,000 Crore for National Education mission.
One Lakh Crore was obtained from disinvestment last year aka sale of PSUs. Incidentally, a large part of this so called target has been met by getting PSUs to buy other PSUs. There has been no strategy to revive ailing PSUs, which is possible, as States like Kerala have shown.
At first glance, the budget speech has been largely a narration of earlier schemes and repetition of promises made before. It avoided any serious discussion on employment and the only significant measure for farmers was a paltry Rs. 500 per month, which will go nowhere in addressing the agrarian crisis. The government, on the other hand, seems to have focussed on the middle and upper middle classes through tax cuts and benefits for property owners. It remains doubtful whether this can address the large scale distress and discontent brewing in rural India.
At the same time, the source of all the money allocated and the nitty-gritty will be clear only when the budget speech and numbers are available. NewsClick will continue with the detailed budget analysis today and over the coming days. We conclude our budget coverage.
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