With the bitterly fought Lok Sabha elections drawing to a close on May 19, NewsClick’s data analytics team projects a likely final tally of 166 seats for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) while the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is likely to get 200 seats. Elections were held for 542 seats with polling for one seat (Vellore) deferred.
Other parties, which are not in either of these alliances are expected to get 176 seats. Since the half-way mark is currently at 271, it is likely that a combination of UPA and these other parties will form a coalition government at the Centre, thus ending five years of Narendra Modi’s Prime Ministership.
These figures have been projected from a detailed state by state analysis of past voting trends, current alliances, and attribution of vote swings away from either of the alliances or parties based on a host of governance-related factors, both at the Centre and the states. These projections are not based on exit or opinion polls.
The ruling NDA had 339 Members of Parliament (MPs) in the outgoing Lok Sabha which included various parties like Shiv Sena, Janata Dal-United, Lok Janshakti Party, and several smaller regional parties. The NDA has seen considerable in and out with disaffected parties like JKPDP (People’s Democratic Party) and TDP (Telugu Desam Party) leaving it and AIADMK (All India Dravida Munetra Kazhagam) extending support to it. The UPA has firmed up its alliance with the DMK (Dravida Munetra Kazhagam), Nationalist Congress Party, Rashtriya Janata Dal and Janata Dal-Secular, all of which are strong state level players and are seen as boosting the UPA numbers, especially in Tamil Nadu.
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However, the biggest blow to the Narendra Modi-led coalition is seen to be delivered by the Gathbandhan (alliance) of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Samajwadi Party (SP) and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) in Uttar Pradesh. From a mere five seats in 2014 won by SP, the Gathbandhan is likely to decimate BJP by wresting 52 additional seats.
A similar rout is expected in Tamil Nadu where the DMK-led alliance is likely to get as many as 28 seats out of 38 which went to polls, while last time, AIADMK had won 37 seats and the BJP two. Projections show that the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (AITC) will retain its pre-eminent position in West Bengal, preventing the BJP from making any significant inroads as being predicted widely.
Of the 176 seats likely to go to various non-NDA and non-UPA parties, a majority have fought the election on a public platform, vigorously opposing the Modi government’s failures. Hence, they are unlikely to support the NDA in the post-election scrabble that is likely to happen. For instance, the Gathbandhan (with 57 seats) and the AITC (34 seats) will likely support the UPA, thus helping it form the government. The Left bloc of MPs is already committed to support a non-BJP formation at the Centre.
The main reason for this outcome – which is factored into the data analysis – is the failure of the Modi government on multiple counts including such pan-Indian issues like joblessness, farmers’ falling incomes and their continued indebtedness, refusal to provide respectable wages to workers, inability to curb corruption, free play of cronyism, damage to constitutional institutions, anti-Muslim stance and encouragement of Hindu fanaticism, open abetment of upper caste oppression against dalits and snatching away of land rights of adivasis. The privatisation of such public services as education and healthcare and selling off public sector to private entities have also angered people.
Official results will be declared after counting begins on May 23. The election process needs to be completed before May 27, due to constitutional imperatives.
[Data analysis by Peeyush Sharma and mapping by Glenissa Pereira]
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