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Falling Population: China's Communist Party to Permit Couples to Have up to 3 Children

New census figures revealed that China’s demographic crisis was expected to deepen as the 60+ population grew to 264 million, up by 18.7% last year.
China Child Policy

Beijing: China's ruling Communist Party on Monday announced a relaxation of its strict two-child policy to allow all couples to have up to three children, in a major policy change after recent data showed a steep decline in birth rates in the world's most populous country.

China permitted all couples to have two children in 2016, scrapping the draconian decades-old one-child policy which policymakers blame for the demographic crisis in the country.

Chinese officials claim the one-child policy implemented for over three decades has prevented over 400 million births.

The decision to permit the third child came after this month's once-in-a-decade census showed that China’s population grew at the slowest pace to 1.412 billion amid official projections that the decline may begin as early as next year.

The new census figures revealed that the demographic crisis China faced was expected to deepen as the population above 60 years grew to 264 million, up by 18.7 per cent last year.

As the calls for the government to do away with the family planning restrictions grew louder due to the concerns that the declining population in the country  could result in serious labour shortages negatively impacting the world’s second-largest economy, the Communist Party of China (CPC), headed by President Xi Jinping, decided to permit a third child while declining to completely scrap the family planning policy.

"China will support couples that wish to have a third child," state-run Xinhua news agency reported, quoting a decision made at the Political Bureau of CPC, presided over by President Xi.

"Implementing the policy and its relevant supporting measures will help improve China's population structure, actively respond to the ageing population, and preserve the country's human resource advantages," the meeting said.

The meeting heard reports on major policy measures to actively address the ageing of population during the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025).

The meeting reviewed a decision on improving birth policies to promote long-term balanced population growth, the Xinhua report said.

"Data shows the aging of the Chinese population has further deepened, and we will continue to face the pressure to achieve long-term balanced population development," Ning Jizhe, head of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), said while releasing the census figures on May 11.

Also the two-child policy failed to enthuse couples to have a second child as fewer opted for the second child citing heavy expenditure in raising the children.

The poor response made Liang Jianzhang, professor at Peking University's School of Economics, to suggest to the government tooffer parents one million yuan ($156,000) for each newborn child to
shore up the country's declining birth rate.

The declining trend prompted Chinese demographers to predict that India’s population may overtake China’s earlier than UN projection of 2027 to take the top spot as the most populous country in the world.

Projected to surpass China as the world's most populous country around 2027, India is expected to add nearly 273 million people between now and 2050 and will remain the most populated country through the end of the current century, a UN report said in 2019.

The UN report stated that in 2019, India had an estimated population of 1.37 billion and China 1.43 billion and by 2027 India’s population is projected to surpass China’s.

Lu Jiehua, professor of sociology at Peking University, said that China’s population may peak by 2027 before it starts to decline. Some demographers believe the peak may come as soon as 2022.

China is also facing the risk of falling into the trap of low fertility, as it recorded 12 million births in 2020, marking a drop for the fourth consecutive year.

China's total fertility rate of women of childbearing age was 1.3, a relatively low level.

Liang Jianzhang, an economics professor at Peking University, told the Global Times earlier that China's fertility rate will continue to drop in the coming years, and may become the world's lowest.

"According to the existing data, in the next 10 years, the number of women aged 22 to 35, which is the childbearing period, will drop by more than 30% compared with the present data,” he said.

"Without strong policy intervention, China's new-born population is likely to fall below 10 million in the next few years, and its fertility rate will be lower than Japan's, perhaps the lowest in the world," Liang predicted.

A recent report by China’s central bank - the People's Bank of China (PBOC) - said demographics of China is set to change as its population growth enters negative growth after 2025, which will result in shortage of consumer demand.

"When the total population enters negative growth [after 2025], there will be a shortage of demand. We need to pay attention to the impact of demographics on future consumption,” said Cai Fang, a member of the monetary policy committee of the PBOC.

The PBOC study said China should immediately liberalise its birth policies or face a scenario in which it has a lower share of workers and higher burden of elderly care than the US by 2050.

It said the country should not interfere with people's ability to have children or it will be too late to reverse the economic impact of a declining population.

China is eyeing a progressive, flexible and differentiated path toraising the retirement age.

According to the Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan, China will takes mall steps to raise the retirement age. It will also implement flexible, tailored policies for different groups, consider all factors, and make overall plans, according to official media reports.

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