NewsClick

NewsClick
  • हिन्दी
  • Politics
  • Economy
  • Covid-19
  • Science
  • Culture
  • India
  • International
  • Sports
  • Articles
  • Videos
search
menu

INTERACTIVE ELECTION MAPS

image/svg+xml
  • All Articles
  • Newsclick Articles
  • All Videos
  • Newsclick Videos
  • हिन्दी
  • Politics
  • Economy
  • Science
  • Culture
  • India
  • Sports
  • International
  • Africa
  • Latin America
  • Palestine
  • Nepal
  • Pakistan
  • Sri Lanka
  • US
  • West Asia
About us
Subscribe
Follow us Facebook - Newsclick Twitter - Newsclick RSS - Newsclick
close menu
×
For latest updates on nCOVID-19 around the world visit our INTERACTIVE COVID MAP
Politics
India

What Jharkhand Results Reveal About BJP’s Hegemony

Tall order to expect BJP alone can win nationally and in all states.
Prannv Dhawan, Ishaan Bansal
28 Dec 2019
What Jharkhand Results Reveal

Image for representational use only.Image Courtesy : Livemint

The Jharkhand Assembly election results are a comprehensive electoral setback for the ruling political party. This setback is a major one not just because it is the first absolute electoral defeat faced by the rather triumphalist dispensation after its landslide victory in the May 2019 Lok Sabha polls, but also because it revives the traditional electoral logic of Opposition-led rainbow alliances (mahagathbandhans).

Distinct as the first clear electoral defeat in the Modi 2.0 regime, the Jharkhand polls represent a continuity with other recent elections to the Haryana and Maharashtra Assemblies. This continuity manifests itself in three ways: One, like in Haryana and Maharashtra, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s vote share and seat share went considerably lower than its Lok Sabha performance seven months ago. While in the Lok Sabha elections in Jharkhand, the BJP got a dominating vote-share of 50.96% with a seat share of 78.57%, in the Assembly election, these numbers reduced to 33.37% and 30.86% respectively. This is a significant decline.

bjp%20chart.PNG

bjp%20chart%202%20jhar.PNG

Second, the Jharkhand results strengthen the perception of mass disillusionment over the ineffective and poor governance record in BJP-ruled states. Hence, it sends a strong message against the perception of BJP’s invincibility at the state level.

It also reinforces the idea that the Assembly elections are the “self-correcting mechanism of democracy.” Moreover, it cements the emerging understanding that national narratives such as security, illegal immigration and terrorism cannot capture the entire spectrum of social and political aspirations of a state. It also presents a limit to the aggressively majoritarian ideological narrative of the BJP, for the electoral data from Jharkhand establishes the diminishing marginal utility, even futility of communal campaigning in various constituencies.

In a way, Jharkhand’s results present a pronounced political challenge to an electoral machinery based on divisive agendas such as construction of a Rama temple, the National Register of Citizens and communally-charged demagoguery that top leaders, including PM Modi, have engaged in. During a campaign speech, Modi sought to delegitimise the anti-CAA protests by stereotyping the attire of the protesters.

Even a voter turnout of 71.69% in the final phase of the Jharkhand elections, which was conducted after discord and protests had broken out over the nationwide CAA—much higher than the average turnout of 66.03% —might reflect the public mood against CAA in the state.

down%20chart.PNG

Third, this continuity manifests in successful counter-hegemonic political manoeuvring and alliance-building, as seen in Maharashtra where ideologically incongruent political entities joined forces against BJP’s unprincipled tactics of dominance. In other words, the BJP pushed all non-BJP political formations to combine in a context where they did not lose public sympathy. This can be attributed to the declining appeal of the BJP’s unforgiving take-no-prisoner approach.

These three factors also contributed significantly to the United Progressive Alliance’s victory in the tribal-dominated state of Jharkhand. The fragmentation between the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha and the Congress was almost perfectly remedied by political managers, who belatedly appreciated how important it is to provide a serious electoral alternative to their voters. Hence, the usual menace of rebel candidates or independents was virtually non-existent, even as routine bickering between alliance partners was pragmatically avoided. The challenge of vote transfer, that surfaced predominantly in Karnataka between the Janata Dal (Secular) and the Congress and even in Jharkhand during Lok Sabha elections was effectively resolved.

This result is also a direct and resounding no against the anti-tribal policies of the previous BJP government under former Chief Minister Raghubar Das. The BJP tried to appeal to the 26% tribal voters in the state by ducking the criticism that Das is not a tribal, by changing its electoral slogan from ‘ghar-ghar Raghubar’ to ‘Jharkhand pukara, Bhajpa dobara’. It also sought to put national narratives such as security, illegal immigration and terrorism at the forefront, but these did not work in a context where voters rallied against the anti-tribal amendments in the SPT and CNT Act.

Land activists have argued that these amendments allow use of tribal land for commercial purposes and make it easy to transfer land, which would facilitate corporate control over tribal land.

Das was accused of being arrogant with government officials and the general public and lacking in concern for the basic needs such as healthcare and education. This made for poor governance and fostered a general dissatisfaction. Even with heavyweights such as Home Minister Amit Shah and Modi backing him, discontent among led to his losing his own seat to Saryu Roy, BJP rebel who fought as an independent. Roy was prevented him from getting a BJP ticket, but losing him proved costly—in the East Jamshedpur seat and neighbouring areas, he successfully created a strong anti-BJP narrative.

Conclusion

The results demonstrate how counting on very specific Hindutva-based national narratives to drive state electoral victories does not work even for a party that dominates the Center. The importance of

multi-party federal structures cannot be outdone by clever re-branding or new slogans, if core electoral issues are ducked. To bring national narratives to the forefront can only go so far in getting votes. Put another way, it is a tall order to expect that the BJP alone will be able to win nationally as well as all the states.

Certainly, the BJP has begun to reap negative returns for its domineering stances, its holier-than-thou posturing and strong-arm tactics. It wants to be the political hegemon and fundamentally change the grammar of India’s multi-party federal parliamentary system. The loss of natural ideological allies such as the Shiv Sena is a case in point. Ultimately, public sympathy went to the much-derided mahagathbandhan [grand alliance] idea. The question remains whether the party which sought to steam-roll “structural reforms” such as simultaneous elections—through which it could dismantle India’s federal multi-party democracy—will now engender trust with others who make up the democratic polity, perhaps like its older, Vajpayee-era avatar.

It is for the BJP to determine whether or not to moderate its stance on controversial issues and make mutually respectful power-sharing arrangements. The other option is that it will allow other political formations and vast chunk of citizens to drift to the edges of the National Democratic Alliance, from where they can drop off, one by one, into other political territories.

The Jharkhand polls possibly suggest the declining ability of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to create large majorities for his party in state elections, as he did in a series of post-2014 Assembly elections. The political implications of this will only become apparent in coming months, for the BJP has held on to a 33%-plus vote share, though that only secured it 25 seats in the 81-seat state Assembly. This vote share is still higher than all the other parties in the fray. The Opposition, therefore, will have to draw its own lessons from this result.

Prannv Dhawan is a third-year law student at NLSIU, Bangalore. Ishaan Bansal is a final year liberal arts student at Ashoka University, Sonipat. The views are personal.

Get the latest reports & analysis with people's perspective on Protests, movements & deep analytical videos, discussions of the current affairs in your Telegram app. Subscribe to NewsClick's Telegram channel & get Real-Time updates on stories, as they get published on our website.
BJP in Jharkhand
Jharkhand
JMM-Congress
RJD
AJSU
BJP
Narendra Modi
Amit Shah
Related Stories
UP: Communally Provocative Slogans Raised at Ram Mandir Fund Collection Rally, Two Held

UP: Communally Provocative Slogans Raised at Ram Mandir Fund Collection Rally, Two Held

election in West Bengal

Two Moves, Two Sides: Which will Change Political Wind in Election-bound West Bengal?

The design for 'Central Vista' project

Modi’s Central Vista: Justice Undone

More TMC Functionaries May Join BJP

More TMC Functionaries May Join BJP

assam madarsa.

Assam: Ahead of Polls, is Govt-Run Madarsa Closure Another BJP Polarisation Bid?

MHA 2020 Review: Exemplar of Fabrication and Authoritarian Pride?

MHA 2020 Review: Exemplar of Fabrication and Authoritarian Pride?

religion.

Can the State Dictate what Religion you will Follow and who you will Marry?

Lohri Celebration by members of Bharatiya Kisan Union (Kadian) at Tikri Border. Image clicked by Ronak Chhabra

Folklore Behind Lohri Strengthens Farmers’ Resolve at Tikri Border

Khedut Samaj

Gujarat Farmers’ Body Denied Permission for Meeting, Challenge Decision in HC

Nitish kumar

Bihar: After Killing of Indigo Airline Official, Nitish’s Ally BJP Demands Encounter Policy for Criminals

Share on FacebookShare on TwitterShare on WhatsAppShare via EmailShare on RedditShare on KindlePrint
Share
Share on FacebookShare on TwitterShare on WhatsAppShare via EmailShare on RedditShare on KindlePrint
Share

Related Stories

Fahad Zuberi

Love Jihad – Legislation of the Post Truth

17 January 2021
The Love Jihad Law is the best example of our institutions destroying truth, leaving the facts redundant and powerless, and creating not just p
Harsh Mander

Locking Down the Poor: The Pandemic and India’s Moral Centre

17 January 2021
Home to the largest number of undernourished people on the planet, India imposed the world’s harshest lockdown for the pandemic.
Sruti MD

TN This Week: ‘Unwanted’ Farm Laws Set on Fire; Crop Damage Dampens Harvest Festival

16 January 2021
Tamil Nadu celebrated the harvest festival Pongal this week. Rahul Gandhi attended the bull-taming sport ‘Jallikattu‘ event in Madurai.

Pagination

  • Next page ››

More

  • Arnab Goswami and Partha Dasgupta.

    Did Arnab Goswami Have Prior Knowledge of Balakot Air Strike?

  • Munawar Faruqi.

    Munawar Faruqui Case Makes Idea of Democracy Illusory

  • 100 Former Civil Servants Raise Questions on Transparency in PM-CARES Fund

    100 Former Civil Servants Raise Questions on Transparency in PM-CARES Fund

  • bAgpat.

    Farmers' Protest: Western UP Khap Leaders Plan to Block Loni Border From January 17

  • Load More
Subscribe
connect with
about