COVID-19: What Went Wrong, Mr. Modi?

Every day, the Union health ministry and its top medical research body is putting out a flurry of numbers, all meant to show that things are under control. There is the positivity ratio, proportion of infected to total population, number of people recovered, doubling rate and what not.

There are also homilies that the coronavirus is here to stay and that people have to get used to living with it. There are comparisons with other countries to show that India is better off, under the sagacious leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Mainstream media is duly reporting all this, endlessly.

But there is no denying that the people of India are not fully reassured. There is uncertainty about what will happen, and there is fear, naturally. Social media is abuzz with home remedies, while there is much huffing and puffing about various scientific studies pointing out this or that aspect of the deadly virus and its stormy journey through human society. Yet, people are afraid, and are beginning to raise a hitherto unasked question: Has India’s strategy to counter the virus failed? Are we on our own?

Have a look at the chart below which shows the number of active cases, that is, number of people who are infected and are undergoing some form of treatment. [Data from MoHFW]

This is necessary to observe because every day, some people get cured and discharged from hospitals, while some unfortunate ones succumb to the disease and die.

The chart shows the number of patients left in hospitals, struggling with the infection. On June 13, the number of active cases was recorded at just over 1.45 lakh. Bulk of these cases is in four states -- Maharashtra (mainly Mumbai), Delhi, Tamil Nadu and Gujarat. But even then, the number is staggering – and chillingly growing.

It is the hospitals that are holding most of these cases. There must be more infected persons outside in communities, but since they have not been tested and confirmed, they are in nobody’s count. In India, there are an estimated 94,961 beds in Intensive Care Units (as on April 20), according to a report by the Centre for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy at Princeton University. They also estimated that there were 47,481 ventilators in all.

Clearly, there is a wide gap in the availability of COVID-19- related infrastructure and the flood of patients these days. Remember: some places, like Mumbai and Delhi, have many more cases than the facilities available, because these are aggregate numbers for the country. For instance, Delhi has an estimated 39,455 ICU beds and 1,973 ventilators, but the number of active cases is higher. One is not even factoring in the fact that about 60% of the facilities are in private hospitals that may charge exorbitant fees or simply turn people away, especially poor people.

So, that brings us to the next grim number, which is the number of deaths by COVID-19 taking place daily. On June 13, a total of 386 deaths were recorded, a tad below the previous day’s toll of 396. The total death toll till date stood at 8,884.

As the chart shows, daily deaths are rising continuously. This is a sign of two aspects: one, the infection is spreading to a larger number of people, and two, that medical attention is insufficient, and increasingly so.

The Modi government had imposed a sudden countrywide lockdown (from March 25) purportedly to suppress the surge in infections – and deaths – and use the time to prepare the healthcare system to deal with the looming crisis.

Centralised data on how many new ICU beds were created and how many ventilators have actually been operationalised is not available with the government, or if it is, they are not giving it out. But the active cases show there is dire need for these and the deaths show that the present status of facilities is insufficient. Clearly, the time made available by the lockdown was frittered away.

Also, latest media reports based on state government data shows that testing is going down rather than increasing. So, it is increasingly likely that people with infections are going around freely because they are not tested. Government quarantine facilities are a shambles and contact tracing has virtually folded up in most parts of the country.

In short, it seems like the battle against COVID-19 has been given up. It’s small wonder then that there are no more countrywide telecasts of ‘inspiring’ speeches by the Prime Minister, no more urging of resolve and restraint.

Under pressure to undo the spectacular damage done to the economy by the premature lockdown, the country is being hustled out of the lockdown like a disorganised and panicky army’s retreat from a lost battle. This is giving a fillip to the coronavirus transmission, and hence the surge in cases in June.

It is expected – as some experts suggest – that another 10 weeks may be what it takes for the coronavirus to play itself out. Meanwhile, a tattered economy and a raging pandemic will have to be borne by the already distressed people.

[Data collated by Peeyush Sharma of Newsclick’s Data Analytics Team]