NewsClick

NewsClick
  • हिन्दी
  • Politics
  • Economy
  • Covid-19
  • Science
  • Culture
  • India
  • International
  • Sports
  • Articles
  • Videos
search
menu

INTERACTIVE ELECTION MAPS

image/svg+xml
  • All Articles
  • Newsclick Articles
  • All Videos
  • Newsclick Videos
  • हिन्दी
  • Politics
  • Economy
  • Science
  • Culture
  • India
  • Sports
  • International
  • Africa
  • Latin America
  • Palestine
  • Nepal
  • Pakistan
  • Sri Lanka
  • US
  • West Asia
About us
Subscribe
Follow us Facebook - Newsclick Twitter - Newsclick RSS - Newsclick
close menu
×
For latest updates on nCOVID-19 around the world visit our INTERACTIVE COVID MAP
Elections 2019
Politics
India

Elections 2019: AIADMK-led Front Set to Lose in Tamil Nadu

Fragmentation of Jayalalitha’s support base and the chaos since her death indicates a defeat for the AIADMK-led front which includes BJP.
Subodh Varma
18 Apr 2019
tamil nadu elections 2019

With Tamil Nadu’s 38 seats going to polls on April 18 (polling has been cancelled in one seat), the defeat of ruling All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) looks imminent. This is the first election after two giants of the state – J.Jayalalitha and M.Karunanidhi – have passed away. While Jayalalitha’s party, the AIADMK, went into a tailspin after her death, in the rival Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), Karunanidhi’s passing away saw a smooth transition of the mantle to Stalin, his son. The state government run by AIADMK has spent a chaotic two years in power without their leader, with one faction splitting away, and constant bickering among the survivors. In the end they have aligned with the BJP which seeks a toe hold in this important southern state.

All these factors, including the unpopularity of the BJP and PM Narendra Modi in the state, point to an imminent defeat of the AIADMK-BJP alliance which includes several small parties like the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) and others. What would be the nature of this defeat?

Analysis of the 2016 Assembly elections data, projecting it to Parliamentary seats shows that even a small 5% swing away from the besieged AIADMK front will mean a severe loss for it. Projected from the Assembly results, the AIADMK front won 37 seats while the opposition DMK front could manage only 2 seats. But a 5% swing from AIADMK+ to DMK+ would upend this and the DMK+ front would get 21 seats while the AIADMK would plummet down to 18, losing 19 seats. As the swing projection is increased, the result gets more and more tilted towards the DMK led front.

What is the Most Likely Scenario?

Given the high degree of discontent over joblessness, farmers’ distress, land grab for infrastructure projects, Thoothukudi firing and growing anger towards the BJP’s attempt to communally polarise the people, it is quite likely that swing away from AIADMK will be closer to 7%. In that case, the DMK led front will get 28 seats while the AIADMK will end up with 11 only.

tamil%20nadu%20elections%202019.jpg

Experts believe that the AIADMK front will manage to win these seats only because of the support of all the smaller parties which represent various caste communities. Without this support, their performance would deteriorate even further.

The DMK front, on the other hand, would be gaining from the two Left parties, CPI and CPI(M), who have considerable following among industrial workers, employees and farmers. Tamil Nadu is a highly industrialised state and trade unions affiliated to the Left parties, especially CITU, is quite strong in industrial belts.

National Implications

The defeat of the AIADMK-BJP front in Tamil Nadu will have a major effect on the prospects of the BJP and NDA when they sit down to tally their numbers after results are declared on May 23. Till now, 37 MPs of AIADMK were with NDA, and one BJP MP was also elected from the state.

But winning only 11 seats means a loss of 26 seats straightaway from the NDA. Seen in the context of the projected losses of BJP and its allies in most of the northern states, and their inability to make any effective gains in eastern or other southern states, the loss in Tamil Nadu may well seal the fate of NDA.

The projected win for the DMK led alliance (which includes the Congress) will boost the chances of a non-BJP govt. at the Centre – something that is keenly expected around the country.

[Data projections by Peeyush Sharma and maps by Glenissa Pereira]

Get the latest reports & analysis with people's perspective on Protests, movements & deep analytical videos, discussions of the current affairs in your Telegram app. Subscribe to NewsClick's Telegram channel & get Real-Time updates on stories, as they get published on our website.
2019 Elections
2019 Lok Sabha elections
2019 Lok Sabha Polls
Tamil Nadu
AIADMK
DMK
J Jayalalithaa
Karunanidhi
MK Stalin
Narendra Modi
Related Stories
TN para teachers protest

TN Govt Ignores ‘Equal Pay’ Demand of Teachers Even After Several Hunger Strikes

tn tangedco

TN: TANGEDCO Violates Tender Rules, Urgency in Floating Tenders Raises Suspicions

Justice Eswaraiah

Ironically, an OBC Prime Minister is Bringing about De-reservation: Justice Eswaraiah

Fuel Price

Soaring Fuel Prices Compound App-Based Workers’ Woes

Narendra Modi Stadium at Motera, Ahmedabad

The Name Game: Concrete Advertising or Advertising Via Concrete?

SKM

Sangharsh Rally to Ekta Diwas: A Look at Workers-Farmers Alliance

Madras hc

Government Hospital to Compensate for Unforeseen Death and Injury: Madras HC

Motera Stadium and RSS nagpur headoffice

Renaming Motera Stadium: The Silence of Nagpur

RINL

Centre’s ‘Unilateral’ Decision to ‘Sell’ RINL Against Public Interest and Sentiment: EAS Sarma

Daily25022021

Youth Demands Employment from the Government, COVID-19 Updates and more

Share on FacebookShare on TwitterShare on WhatsAppShare via EmailShare on RedditShare on KindlePrint
Share
Share on FacebookShare on TwitterShare on WhatsAppShare via EmailShare on RedditShare on KindlePrint
Share

Related Stories

Newsclick Production

Jai Kisan: 100 Days of Farmers' Agitation

05 March 2021
The ongoing farmers' agitation crossed 100 days today.
Ronak Chhabra

Behind Spate of Protests by Auto Workers, a Struggling Industry and State Failure ‘On All Fronts’

05 March 2021
New Delhi: Like every other crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, which triggered an unprecedented countrywide lockdown less than a year
Prudhviraj Rupavath

Unions Fear Privatisation of Ports Pose Threat to Employment and National Security

03 March 2021
Hyderabad: As the Union Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways (MoPSW) is organising the Maritime India Summit 2021 in virtual mode from March 2

Pagination

  • Next page ››

More

  • TMC, AIADMK Release Candidate List for Assembly Polls

    TMC, AIADMK Release Candidate List for Assembly Polls

  • HP eco down

    Himachal Pradesh to Clock Negative Growth of 6.2% in FY21 Due to Pandemic: Eco Survey

  • Coronavirus-Hit  Maharashtra  Economy to Contract 8% in FY21: Eco Survey

    Coronavirus-Hit Maharashtra Economy to Contract 8% in FY21: Eco Survey

  • chian gdp

    China Sets Over 6% GDP Target in 2021 as Economy in Rebound Mode

  • Load More
Subscribe
connect with
about