UP Bypolls: Slow Turnout, Clash, Burqa-Clad Women ‘Stopped’ From Casting Vote

Lucknow: Three crucial by-elections to the Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat and Rampur Sadar and Khatauli Assembly seats concluded on Monday with minor scuffles and clashes at many places. An estimated low combined average of 54.38 % polling was recorded in the three constituencies till 5 pm.

The bypoll in Mainpuri was necessitated following the death of Samajwadi Party (SP) founder Mulayam Singh Yadav. The Rampur Sadar and Khatauli Assembly seats fell vacant after sitting MLAs Azam Khan and Vikram Singh Saini were disqualified following their convictions in separate cases.

With the Congress and the Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) keeping away, the by-elections in all three constituencies saw a direct flight between the BJP and the SP-RLD. The BJP is trying to retain its seat, around 25 km south of Muzaffarnagar town, while the opposition alliance is hammering away to upset the apple cart of the ruling party. Similarly, the BJP aims to sweep both Rampur and Khatauli, citadels of the SP-RLD. 

With the BSP and Congress out of the race in these polls, the role of Dalit voters will be crucial. Khatauli constituency has over 3.12 lakh voters, including one lakh Muslims, 25,000 to 30,000 Gurjar and Jat voters each, around 50,000 Dalit voters and nearly 30,000 Saini voters.

In Mainpuri, OBC-Dalits hold the key. In Rampur, the BJP will hope to test the response of the backward Muslims, whom it has tried to woo through Pasmanda outreach, citing delivery of pro-poor schemes to all the poor sans any discrimination as its major achievement.

“It’s a neck-to-neck fight in Khatauli. However, the BJP has little edge since the BSP was not in the fray. Therefore, Dalit votes will go to one single party. But the BJP may benefit from the social engineering that they did,” Anas Naseer, a political observer based in Muzaffarnagar’s Khatauli told NewsClick.

“A drawback with the RLD was that it had an outsider candidate Madan Bhaiya and no Dalit face. Even the Opposition could not work on it despite the Dalits playing an important role in any Assembly elections. Furthermore, If BJP fielded a new face instead of Vikram Singh Saini’s wife, they would have had the upper hand and could easily retain the seat. Certainly, a sitting BJP MLA’s wife will not get any benefits from her husband due to his image,” Naseer said.

The BJP fielded its disqualified MLA Vikram Saini’s wife Rajkumari Saini from the Khatauli assembly seat. She is a former Pradhan of Kawal village in the Muzaffarnagar district.

“Madan Bhaiya won the 2022 Assembly election by nearly 16,000 votes, but this time the victory will be with a margin between 1,000 to 1,500. Even the core voters of the BJP split this time due to its leader’s image. So the selection of poor candidates by both parties emerged as one of the main reasons that no one has the upper hand,” he further said. 

Naseer alleged that around 57 complaints were registered against BJP leaders and workers till 4:30 pm on election day. 

When asked about the BJP’s Pasmanda outreach and its impact among minority voters, Naseer told NewsClick, “Only those 2-3% Muslims will vote for the saffron party whose family members are associated with the party, otherwise there is no such impact of Pasmanda meets in Western Uttar Pradesh so far. In the 2022 Assembly elections, around 5,000 Muslims voted for the BJP, which is roughly 3%, while the rest was with the SP-RLD alliance.”

According to locals in Khatauli, farmers’ protests against the now-scrapped contentious farm laws, unemployment and inflation are other reasons that trouble voters ahead of by-polls and will probably dent BJP’s chances this time.

With the BJP enjoying an overwhelming majority in both the Lok Sabha and the UP Assembly, the outcome of the bypolls will have no bearing on the electoral strength of the BJP and its grip on power in UP.

However, a victory is expected to lend a psychological edge to the winner in the run-up to the general elections in 2024.

NewsClick also spoke with several farmer leaders and experts in Mainpuri where polls for the lone Lok Sabha seat were concluded with dozens of complaints by SP workers, including electors being prevented from voting to decrease the polling percentage and EVMs malfunctioning in several areas. The SP alleged that in a polling booth in the Balpura village in Karhal, the BJP agents prevented Muslim voters from exercising their franchise.

Sanjeev Yadav, a Bharatiya Kisan Union (Tikait fraction) leader in Saifai, told NewsClick, “SP is going to retain the seat as Shivpal Yadav and Akhilesh came together after Mulayam’s demise, keeping aside their differences. Mainpuri is also a Yadav-dominated constituency and most of the voters are farmers who are not happy with both the Modi and Yogi governments. Farmers have been cheated by the ruling government as they did not keep their promises after repealing the three farm laws.”

Meanwhile, In a series of tweets, SP leaders, including its chief Akhilesh Yadav, alleged that the party workers were thrown out of booths, electors were prevented from voting to decrease polling percentage, and EVMs malfunctioned in several areas. The party also alleged that in a polling booth in Balpura village in Karhal, BJP agents prevented Muslim voters from exercising their rights.

रामपुर में मुस्लिम मतदाताओं को वोट डालने से रोक रही पुलिस। भाजपा को जिताने के लिए चुनाव को किया जा रहा प्रभावित।

मामले का संज्ञान ले चुनाव आयोग, आरोपियों पर हो कार्रवाई। @ceoup@ECISVEEP@SpokespersonECI pic.twitter.com/goMQ29BNWU

— Samajwadi Party (@samajwadiparty) December 5, 2022

Low Turnout In Rampur

Polling started on a dull note in Rampur, followed by alleged complaints by SP leaders that Muslim voters, especially burqa-clad women, were allegedly not allowed to cast their votes and multiple scrutinies by the district administration forced them to stay at home. 

When asked about the slow voting pattern, Shadab Ahamad, a social activist based in Rampur, told NewsClick, “In my 35 years of life, I never witnessed such an election before. The situation here was the worst first lockdown. A sense of fear was created by the police. Two days before the election, the entire Rampur turned into a fortress. The reason Muslim voters could not cast their vote. The voters were hounded by the police, the administration asked them to show both Aadhaar card and voter ID and those who carried one identity card were not allowed to vote.”

Shadab believes that the slow turnout of voters in Muslim-dominated areas could surely benefit BJP. 

Another local, Syed Abid Hussain of Rampur, told NewsClick, “There are multiple layers of barricading in Muslim areas to hinder them from coming out of their house. They’re stopped at every nook and corner of the road, obstructing them from even reaching the polling booths. Burqa-clad women have been stopped from casting their votes. Besides, the police misbehaved with them.”

In Rampur, 31.22% of voting took place till 5 pm. There was a direct fight between SP and BJP in this by-election. A total of 10 candidates, including SP and BJP candidates, were in the fray here.

The Rampur Sadar Assembly constituency has about 1.5 lakh Muslims, who make up more than 50% of the total electorate. The BJP held Pasmanda (backward) Muslim meeting here as well. Barring once (1996), the seat has been with veteran SP leader Azam Khan and his clan since 1980.

Now, Azam Khan, who has won the seat ten times, is backing his protégé Asim Raza on the SP ticket. The BJP has gone with known Azam baiter Akash Saxena, son of a former UP minister.