NewsClick

NewsClick
  • हिन्दी
  • Politics
  • Economy
  • Science
  • Culture
  • India
  • International
  • Sports
  • Podcasts
  • Articles
  • Videos
search
menu
  • All Podcasts
  • All Articles
  • Newsclick Articles
  • All Videos
  • Newsclick Videos
  • हिन्दी
  • Politics
  • Economy
  • Science
  • Culture
  • India
  • Sports
  • International
  • Africa
  • Latin America
  • Palestine
  • Nepal
  • Pakistan
  • Sri Lanka
  • US
  • West Asia
About us
Contact us
Subscribe
Follow us Facebook - Newsclick Twitter - Newsclick RSS - Newsclick
close menu
Science

Artificial Intelligence In The Prediction Of Earthquake Aftershocks

Aftershocks often prove to be more devastating than the main earthquake, and prediction had been mostly unsuccessful.
Sandipan Talukdar
06 Sep 2018
Artificial Intelligence

Aftershocks, following big earthquakes can be as much or even more devastating as the main shocks. But predicting the locations of aftershocks has left seismologists and geo physicistson a back-foot. Bringing hopeisa recent study, which analysed huge earthquake datawith the application of Artificial Intelligence (AI),  and it is expected to be potentially better in predicting the aftershock locations in comparison to the traditional methods. 

In cases of big earthquakes mostly what happens is that the aftershocks keep on coming even after the main shock has passed.  Scientists say that aftershocks can be recorded even after a century of the main shocks. There are examples where it has been observed that the devastation caused by the aftershocks can be even more than the main earthquake. The earthquake that occurred in New Zealand in 2010 was greater in magnitude during its initial shocks. But more devastation was caused by the after shocks which occurred 5 months later. Predicting the locations of probable aftershocks is of utmost necessity for saving lives and damages. While the traditional way of predicting aftershocks have failed in many instances, this newly developed model can be helpful in the future. 

Scientists traditionally employed the technique where the changes in the stress of the nearby rocks are calculated and used to predict how likely a place is going to have the tremors of aftershocks. However, these methods may not work successfully in all instances. 

In their study, Phoebe M.R DeVries and his colleagues adopted the technique of AI. From the huge data available regarding the earlier earthquakes, DeVries et al took more than 131,000 main shock and aftershock earthquake data. The researchers then developed a Neural Network model and trained the network with the data they considered.  

The idea of the neural network model is based on the functioning of the human brain.This model functions by receiving input from the outside world, processing it,and then deciding what to bring out as the correct output. What decision a neural network takes is based on how it is being trained or modelled. In the model developed by DeVries et al, they divided the area, where the main shock occurred, into a grid of cells. Each cell spans an area of 5 kilometers to a side surrounding the main shock. Then they trained the model in a way that can predict the location of future aftershocks. In the first place they told the network about the occurrence of an earthquake, and then fed it with data on how the earthquake changes the stress of the ground in the nearby areas. The nearby areas are within the cells of the grid. So in the process of training, the center of each grid cell will know the change in ground stress after the earthquake has occurred. Then the scientists asked the neural network what is the probability of aftershock that each grid cell can generate. 

The researchers tested their model on 131,000 main shock-aftershock events and their model could predict the locations of the aftershocks in a far better way than the traditional methods. The success of this model in saving lives and property can only be seen in the future. 

Artificial Intelligence
Related Stories

AI Race: China and US in the Lead, Where Does India Stand?

Internet

An Internet For Strengthening Citizenship

Machine

What Jobs Can Machine Learning Replace?

Climate Change Denial, Powerful AI, Neutron Stars Collision: 2017 in Science

AI

Artificial Intelligence Learns Language Translation Without Human Interference

Automation and Artificial Intelligence Triggering Massive Layoffs in IT

Artifical Intelligence.jpeg

Will Machines Replace Human Beings: AlphaGo and DeepMind


Related Stories

Lethal Autonomous Weapons
Newsclick Report

Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems: A Bad Idea?

22 May 2018
Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman inaugurated on Monday the ‘Stakeholders’ Wor
Newsclick Report

The Crisis in Validating Artificial Intelligence Research

20 February 2018
For any scientific study to be proven robust and accurate, it must be possible for others to replicate the study and produce similar results.
Artificial Intelligence
Prabir Purkayastha

Artificial Intelligence: A Technological Issue or a Political One? - Part 2

13 February 2018
In the final part of a two part discussion, Anupam Guha, AI and NLP researcher talks to Newsclick Editor-in-Chief Prabir Purkayastha about how disc

Pagination

  • Next page ››

More

  • Govt Advisory: No Coverage to Protests in North-east?

    Govt Advisory: No Coverage to Protests in North-east?

  • Economic slowdown in India

    Expenses > Income, Modi Govt Destroys Economy?

  • Inflation Spikes, Negative Growth Accelerates India’s  Economy Slowdown

    Inflation Spikes, Negative Growth Accelerates India’s Economy Slowdown

  • CAB: Protests in Bihar, JD-U’s Prashant Kishor Urges Non-BJP CMs to ‘Save Soul of India’

    CAB: Protests in Bihar, JD-U’s Prashant Kishor Urges Non-BJP CMs to ‘Save Soul of India’

  • Load More
Subscribe
connect with
about
contact