Bihar Elections: Most Exit Polls Give Edge to Grand Alliance, But Will it do Better?

Exit polls often tend to show a bias towards the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Despite this, the exit polls for Bihar Assembly elections released on November 7, show an edge for the opposition Grand Alliance or Mahagathbandhan (MGB). In all probability, this means that the MGB could be heading for a clear win, ending Nitish Kumar-led BJP-JDU rule that lasted for 15 years (with a two-year interregnum in 2015-17).

As NewsClick has been reporting from Bihar, this defeat of Nitish Kumar is not surprising – there was no part of the state, nor any section of people, which did not feel discontent at the sorry state of affairs in the state.

But first, here’s a snapshot of the various exit polls released on November 7, after polling for the last phase of elections ended at 6 p.m. The actual counting of votes for 243 seats will take place on November 10.

In all the cases, the best case scenario for the MGB (comprising Rashtriya Janata Dal, Congress and the three Left parties) is higher than the BJP-led NDA. The majority mark is 122 and four exit polls – News18-Today’s Chanakya, ABP-C-Voter, India Today-Axis and Republic-Jan ki Baat -- project that MGB will comfortably go beyond that.

Two others (TV9-Bharatvarsh and Times Now-C-Voter) predict a truly hung Assembly with neither giving a majority to either of the two alliances. Dainik Bhaskar predicts a definite defeat of MGB.

In the hung Assembly scenario, it is thought, the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) or some of the independents and others may play a decisive role since they will be amenable to getting lured into one side or other. In this situation, the alliance with the most resources will stand to benefit.

As has been shown in various states, like Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, BJP is likely to be the prime mover in a hung Assembly although a pre-poll alliance will get the first shot at making the government. 

The 2015 Fiasco

However, one needs to remember the 2015 fiasco. All exit polls (except one which was not aired) predicted a hung Assembly type of situation or a close race between the NDA and the then existing formidable Grand Alliance which was made up of RJD, JD-U, and Congress.

Some even gave a comfortable majority to the NDA. When results came out, they showed a massive landslide win for the Grand Alliance and a humiliating defeat for the BJP-led alliance. [See chart below]

Clearly, the pollsters had all got it wrong. The only exit poll, by Axis, scheduled to be aired on CNN-News18, was not aired and Axis put it up on their website. It predicted the final outcome correctly, giving the BJP and its smaller allies a mere 64 seats with a landslide win for the Grand Alliance.

There was much speculation on why it was not aired, but it was obvious – either they did not have the courage to go with it or they were told by higher ups not to go against the Narendra Modi government. Remember, it was November 2015, barely a year and a half since Modi won his famous victory at the Centre in 2014. This incident shows the atmosphere in which exit polls are done and aired.

Going by this bias, many of the polls predicting a close fight or even a hung Assembly are likely to be wrong – the more likely outcome is what two polls are suggesting that MGB will win hands down.

Turning Point for Bihar

The current exit polls all agree that the LJP will be left with very few seats as will independents and others, including the Grand Secular Alliance of various small parties, such as the AIMIM, that couldn’t fit in with either of the two main alliances.

If the exit polls are close to the real outcome, the biggest lesson is this: the people of Bihar have risen above the iron frame of so-called caste divisions to vote out a non-performing government in the state. Unemployment has emerged as the biggest single issue in the elections and MGB’s promise of 10 lakh jobs and other people-oriented promises have clearly drawn the people. It also shows that PM Modi’s so-called ‘magic’ doesn’t quite work anymore.

The actual results, to be declared after counting on November 10, will likely prove to be a turning point for Bihar politics, and for the country