BJP Has Not Yet Responded to AIADMK’s Split from Alliance

The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) officially snapped ties with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) on Monday. Five days have passed, and the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) has yet to comment on this big move. When asked by media persons, the state BJP chief Annamalai said the party’s national leadership would respond promptly. 

BJP spokespersons have not participated in television debates over the past few days. AIADMK leaders have also not spoken after K P Munusamy announced about withdrawing from the alliance. The limited responses have given television and social media platforms much scope to analyse what the split means for the upcoming parliamentary election.

The BJP allegedly had no idea about the split, which came as a shocker to the party. They did not expect the friendly ally AIADMK, or any alliance party, to take such a drastic step. Especially when there are corruption charges and other cases against ten AIADMK leaders, there is a fear that BJP would use central agencies such as ED and DVAC to intimidate them. But AIADMK has decided to stand up against the bullying, and the national party’s leadership has remained silent.

On the other hand, the split is read as a drama staged by the BJP and AIADMK to garner minority votes in the 2024 parliamentary election. BJP’s agenda of the Hindu-Hindi-Hindutva has little mileage in Tamil Nadu, so to ally with the BJP is widely criticised as a burden for the AIADMK. The BJP heavily profits from the alliance by getting AIADMK’s vote share and gaining visibility. This is read as a strategy for the AIADMK to contest separately but extend support to the NDA after the elections.

The AIADMK did not cite the BJP, its policies, or national leadership for withdrawing from the alliance. It is not an ideological split, and they could later unite on the basis of a common minimum programme. Also, Edappadi K Palaniswami, the AIADMK general secretary, did not announce the split. So, there is criticism that it need not be considered as a final stand of the party. 

At the same time, the possibility that Annamalai pushed AIADMK into the split is also analysed. Without AIADMK in the alliance, the NDA would be headed by the BJP in Tamil Nadu, and it would not be the B-team of AIADMK. Annamalai would head such an alliance for the upcoming parliamentary polls.

ANNAMALAI SOLELY BLAMED FOR SPLIT

AIADMK, the main opposition party in Tamil Nadu, separated from the BJP and quit the NDA through a resolution passed in the AIADMK meeting held on September 25. Without naming Tamil Nadu chief Annamalai, it said the BJP leader is shaming AIADMK ideologues, and that cannot be tolerated.

Annamalai passed remarks about late Chief Minister Jayalalithaa’s ‘conviction’ in a corruption case. He baselessly claimed that Dravidian ideologue Annadurai insulted Hinduism and had to go into hiding. On several occasions, he belittled AIADMK general secretary Edappadi, a leader appreciated for keeping the AIADMK intact. Annamalai also said he would release a list of corruption charges against AIADMK leaders while still in the alliance. These activities have enraged the AIADMK cadre and leaders.

“There is a sanctity to be in an alliance; there is an alliance dharma and a Lakshman Rekha. Our allies cannot take us for granted on multiple occasions and try to test us,” said AIADMK spokesperson Kovai Sathyan.

Although the decision to sever ties was sudden, he said, “We even passed a resolution against Annamalai two months ago and sent it to the high command of the BJP. So, it is not a knee-jerk reaction or a one-day affair. This has been simmering for quite some time, and finally, the D-day has come.”

Even though the AIADMK hinted recently that the BJP was no longer an ally, it did say that the issue of an alliance would be decided at the time of the Lok Sabha polls. The split from the alliance was made after an AIADMK delegation’s visit to New Delhi to meet senior BJP leaders did not yield results.

“The AIADMK has possibly been one of the most docile and loyal allies of the BJP. To the extent that they were ridiculed in the state. They were lampooned, called the adimai (slave)-party of the BJP,” said political analyst Suman C Raman.

“The AIADMK thought the BJP initially ignored Annamalai and overlooked his activities. However, when it became clear that the BJP high command was playing a double game, AIADMK called it quits,” he added.

Journalist RK Radhakrishnan rhetorically asked, “All that Annamalai did was to demean Annadurai, Edappadi and Jayalalitha. Will they replace him just for this petty reason?”

He pointed out that “Biren Singh is still in power in Manipur; extreme violence has resumed, and over the past five days, there has been an internet ban in the state. Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh, who is accused of several sexual harassment cases, is still with the BJP. So is Ashish Mishra, son of Union Minister Ajay Mishra Teni, who was accused of running a jeep over farmers and killing them. Narendra Modi-led BJP is a party that endorses such people and never gives up on them despite moral compulsions.”

Critics reiterate that Annamalai consciously belittled AIADMK, and the BJP national leadership remained indifferent to it.

IMPACT ON INDIA ALLIANCE

AIADMK’s decision to quit the NDA could drastically impact the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) in Tamil Nadu. Given the alliance's only stand is to overthrow the BJP in the upcoming parliamentary election, an AIADMK without a BJP alliance could attract INDIA members towards the party.

One possible impact for the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led coalition in Tamil Nadu is that constituent parties will demand a bigger share of the seats, as moving to the AIADMK-led front is an option. The DMK was strict with seat-sharing in the 2020 assembly elections, and a similar attitude in the national elections would further upset the Congress, the Communist Party of India (CPI), the Communist Party of India India (Marxist) (CPI-M) and the VCK. The split in NDA gives more bargaining power to these parties within INDIA.

Tamil Nadu has 39 Lok Sabha seats, and the state has a history of swinging majority. The AIADMK contested separately, won 37 out of the 40 parliamentary constituencies in the 2014 general elections and emerged as the third-largest party.