Economy May Contract by 7.7% in 2020-21: Govt’s First Advanced Estimate
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New Delhi: The Indian economy is estimated to shrink -7.7% in 2020-21 compared with 4.2% growth in the previous fiscal, with contraction in almost all sectors, except agriculture.
As per the first advanced estimates of the national income released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Thursday: “Real GDP or GDP at Constant Prices (2011-12) in the year 2020-21 is likely to attain a level of Rs 134.40 lakh crore, as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for the year 2019-20 of Rs 145.66 lakh crore... The growth in real GDP during 2020-21 is estimated at -7.7 per cent as compared to the growth rate of 4.2 per cent in 2019-20," it said.
In the current fiscal, manufacturing sector is likely to see a contraction 9.4 per cent whereas growth was almost flat at 0.03 per cent in the year-ago period.
The NSO estimates significant contraction in 'mining and quarrying', and 'trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting'.
Agriculture sector is estimated to see a growth of 3.4% in 2020-21. However, it will be lower than 4% growth recorded in 2019-20.
According to NSO, the pandemic and associated public health measures adversely affected the contact-sensitive services sector where trade, hotels, transport & communication are estimated to contract by 21.4% in FY21.
As per the advanced estimates, gross value added (GVA) stood at -7.2% against 3.9% last fiscal. The construction sector is likely to contract at -12.6% against 1.3% year-on-year.
Private final consumption for FY21 has been estimated to shrink at -9.5% against 5.3% year-on-year. Government final expenditure for FY21 has been estimated at 5.8% against 11.8%, while gross fixed capital formation for FY21 has been estimated to contract at -14.5% against -2.8% year-on-year.
The economy contracted 23.9% in the first quarter and 7.5% in the second quarter, mainly due to the pandemic and the sudden countrywide lockdown declared on March 25, rendering huge job losses and hitting business, trade and services badly.
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