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Latest Opinion Poll in Brazil Gives Lula 47% Over Bolsonaro’s 32%

The Datafolha survey points to the possibility of a Lula victory in first round, despite Bolsonaro’s growth.
The latest Datafolha poll shows that Lula may clinch a first round victory.

The latest Datafolha poll shows that Lula may clinch a first round victory.

The Datafolha poll results released on Thursday August 18 estimate that former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party of Brazil has 47% of the voting intentions and remains the frontrunner in the upcoming presidential elections. The poll estimates Lula would receive 51% of the valid votes cast, which would guarantee his victory in the first round.

Sitting President Jair Bolsonaro was mentioned by 32% of those interviewed, 15 points behind Lula. In valid votes, he reaches 35%.

Ciro Gomes of the Democratic Labor Party continues in third, with 7%, followed by Simone Tebet, with 2%, and Vera Lúcia United Socialist Workers’ Party, with 1%. The other candidates did not score any points.

Null and blank votes totaled 6%, and 2% of the interviewed voters said they had not yet decided their vote.

Datafolha interviewed 5,744 voters personally and the survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number BR-09404/2022. The margin of error is two percentage points higher or lower.

Last presidential poll by Datafolha

In the institute’s last national poll, released on July 28, Lula had 47% of voting intention. At that point, the former president was five points ahead of the sum of all his opponents, putting him in a position to win the first round.

Jair Bolsonaro had swung positively one point, reaching 29%. Ciro Gomes had 8%, with Simone Tebet at 2%. Pablo Marçal, André Janones and Vera Lúcia scored 1%, and the other candidates did not score. 6% voted blank or null, while 3% were undecided. Janones ended up giving up his candidacy and supporting Lula’s candidacy.

In Datafolha’s spontaneous poll of July 28, Lula led with 38%, followed by Bolsonaro with 26%, Ciro Gomes with 3%, and Simone Tebet with 1%.

This article was originally published in Portuguese at Brasil de Fato.

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