Maharashtra’s COVID-19 crisis: Rising Cases in districts like Kolhapur Worrying

On May 1, Pune had 1,316 cases while Mumbai had 7,812 and Thane 1,016. Come August 16 and the most badly affected districts in Maharashtra remain Pune, Mumbai and Thane, but the number of confirmed cases in Pune has overtaken that of Mumbai. As on August 16, Pune recorded 1,30,606 cases and Mumbai 1,28,726. Thane isn’t far behind with 1,13,944. The three districts alone account for more than 60 per cent of the confirmed cases in the state.

Both Pune and Mumbai have more than 21 per cent of the cases each, while Thane has 19 per cent, and Nashik has slightly more than 4 per cent, yet eight districts of Maharashtra figure in the top 25 most-affected districts in the country. Pune, in fact, tops the list in terms of the number of active cases with more than 41,000 cases in the district compared with Delhi which has more than 10,000 active cases. The other Maharasthra districts that figure in the national list of top-25 districts, apart from Pune, Mumbai and Thane are Nashik, Raigarh, Palghar, Aurangabad, and Jalgaon.

The number of confirmed cases in the district other than the big three have risen sharply in July and have been surging in August as well. Kolhapur had just 47 in the week June 8-14 and grew only to 96 confirmed cases in the first week of July but currently has 5,017 cases. The steep and sudden growth in the number of cases in this district is clearly alarming.

The week ending August 16, surprisingly showed a sharp reduction in the number of tests conducted while the number of cases continues to grow. The total number of tests conducted was more 3.8 lakh in the week, but the cases still grew to about 80,500, from about 74,000 the previous week, but overall, the tests conducted were more than 4.75 lakh till August 16.

The silver lining in all this is that even in districts like Mumbai the number of active cases are relatively low compared to the number of confirmed cases. Mumbai has 1,28,726 confirmed cases of which 1,03,468 patients have recovered and 7,133 have died, thus the district has about 18,125 active cases. That means about 80 per cent of all cases have recovered in Mumbai, which is good news. For Pune the data does not look so good. It is about 66 per cent recovery rate, while Thane is almost as good as Mumbai with 79 per cent. Even here a district like Kolhapur looks worrying with just about 46 per cent of the cases recovering.

The number of fatalities when compared to the total confirmed cases makes Mumbai’s number a matter of worry. At 35 per cent of the state's total fatalilties, when compared to neighbouring Thane with about 16 per cent, and even Pune with about the same, is something to note.

Maharashtra’s battle against the novel coronavirus is a long an arduous one. While the state has the arduous and urgent task of controlling the pandemic in the big districts like Mumbai, Pune and Thane, it is equally important not to lose sight of the rising numbers especially in districts like Kolhapur.