As Modi Clocks Frequent Flyer Miles, What is in it for India?

Newsclick talks to former Naval Commander Atul Bhardwaj on Prime Minister Modi's 4th visit to the US, and the possible outcomes of such a visit. Commander Bhardwaj argues that under Modi, India is being drawn into a strategic cooperation with the US, particularly focussed on China. This demands that India makes its armed forced inter-operable with the US and therefore buying of large quantities of US arms. He also felt that US policy of using India becoming a counter balance to China fits in with the US policy of containment of China but not in India's interest.

Rough Transcript:

D. Raghunandan (Raghu): Hello and welcome to Newsclick. This programme is in partnership with Real News. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is making his fourth visit to the United States and there are varied expectations from the American side and the Indian side as to what this visit means and what likely outcomes are. But in today's programme, we want to focus on discussions related to security and defense; and to help us with these discussions, we have with us today former Commander Atul Bhardwaj now with the Institute of Chinese Studies in Delhi. Welcome.

Atul Bhardwaj (Atul) : Thank you Sir. As you have already said that this is Modi's 4th visit now in almost 2 years time and obviously even if he is not going on bilateral visit to United States and going in on multilateral visits for events, there is always a bilateral element involved in whenever he visits Washington for that matter. There is always business involved in his visits over there. So in that respect I see this as a very crucial visit. One, because Obama is now about to leave in another eight months time and during his entire eight year tenure basically, this relationship has fructified. I believe that this relationship regardless of whichever government is there in whichever country, this relationship has been moving on and gaining strength for the last twenty odd years now and you see that it has been persistently following a particular line. Only thing is it has been accelerated and de-accelerated from time to time. After Modi came back, he has actually put foot on the accelerator and he doesn't know when to stop.

Raghu: But the speed at which it is growing reflects in what in terms of outcome that you think it is gong to be pursued in this visit from what the Indian Ambassador to the United States is saying, he has been saying that he is viewing this as a kind of a transitional visit leading into a next administration?

Atul: You know, the Americans are good at manufacturing events, Modi is very good at event management as they say. So they are looking at big ticket event actually to define Indo-American relations. After 2005 one two three agreement they haven't had any big ticket event to redefine the relationship or to resell the relationship to the people. So now what are they going to do is they are going to find that event I think is not going to be LSA, that is Logistics Support Agreement, signing of Logistics Support Agreement which is little more complicated.

Raghu: You don't think it is going to happen in this visit?

Atul: It may not happen. It will eventually happen that may not happen in this particular visit even if that eventually happen, it will not be showcased as a big ticket event because that does not really help the relationship in that sense both domestically, specially in India. So the big ticket event, what is going to be the big ticket event. I feel the big ticket event is going to be the US India collaboration on nuclear powered aircraft carrier. The US has already agreed to supply the landing equipment, the more modern landing equipment for that particular purpose. About the propulsion machinery on that issue, there are still negotiations going on both with the US Congress as well as India would definitely want it if it is given.

Raghu: Although, so far there has been no announcement even of a in principle deal with regard to nuclear propelled aircraft carrier, you think that it is likely that during this visit some such in principle agreement likely to be announced?

Atul: I am not saying that they would be in principle on propulsion no agreement would come in now. But on the collaboration part and other fields suppose there are other weapon systems which may go into that even that we may not have an agreement on. But on principle, they may agree on say because this aircraft carrier would be 65,000 ton aircraft carrier on which they could probably have 50 F-35 aircrafts. Now, this fifth generation F-35 aircrafts is actually the US is not able to really sell them because there are lots of doubts about this particular aircraft, about the efficacy of this aircraft itself and of course it is very very expensive. Even The Economist had given an article on this particular issue that this aircraft is not worth it's salt.

Raghu: So given the uncertainties we are seem to be getting into the areas of more and more uncertainty with the nuclear propulsion with the aircraft carrier and the F-35s. So given all these uncertainties may be the best that could happen during this visit is some kind of a preparatory or exploratory agreements along those lines.

Atul: Yes, we do expect. You know, the basic fact is Americans are now actually getting India into a you know the buzz word of the entire strategic arrangement is inter-operability. Now inter-operability basically comes from the fact that the Americans are now designing the networks enabled architecture of warfare. Now, in that network enabled architecture basically equipment which will work will be and which will ensure inter-operability between units, between forces that is between units within a force and between forces and also between countries. So there, the equipments which will actually now be sold is which is capable of plug and play. So if you have an equipment which can plug and play into an American designed network architecture that is an equipment which will work and that is the equipment that Americans want to sell to India.

Raghu: I would like to come to the hardware part a little later. Meanwhile, do you think one of the subjects under discussion is likely to be closer cooperation between India and the United States in terms of patrolling or otherwise joint operations in the South China Sea.

Atul: China of course, they have to find raison d'être basically to sell the equipment or to get closer to each other and China of course offers the best raison d'être for that. I do not understand how India could possibly -- take possibly – a position on South China sea issue. It is a dispute between various countries involved in that area. One country has one claim and there are counter claims. If you see the Indian strategic community's take on that particular issue, it is a very one-sided thing. They would actually talk in terms of the claims which are put forth by Japan or for that matter Vietnam or Philippines. Now the claims that the Chinese are putting up, nobody discusses that. So based on one-sided claims, we have actually formulated the South China sea is a problematic area. South China sea is a much less problematic in comparison to what is happening to the Middle-east.

Raghu: United States is today taking the position that the South China sea are open in international waters that there should be freedom of passage there and this is what they are slowly trying in one way or other trying to enforce by sending the American vessels in South China Sea in areas where Chinese are increasingly regarding as their own. Is it likely that some form of statement or otherwise which projects joint US -India interests in protecting international characters of waters around the South China sea. Some such formulation is likely to come forward?

Atul: You know there is no threat to freedom of navigation as such. There are ships which are allowed to go. In your territorial waters, no country allows you to have your warships coming in without permission. That is a very clear cut clause in that sense.

Raghu: But China today has declared those as it's territorial water which was not there a few years ago and that's the basics of American position that these are open waters.

Atul: I am not actually saying what China is doing and what China is not doing. I am basically saying you know you travel miles into another area basically, who is actually triggering the conflict?

Raghu: That's why I am asking therefore, not who is right or who is wrong. But do you think there is a likelihood of India getting dragged into the American position on the South China Sea?

Atul: India has already got dragged into that. We have already been doing this Malabar series of exercise with Americans, and in which Japanese are also coming in, in which Australians are also coming in. It's a quadrilateral kind of arrangement which you are getting into in South China Sea. It is primarily to apply pressure on China. The entire game is to apply pressure; America's pivot to Asia is primarily designed to counter China.

Raghu: Going back to the Modi visit. If nothing concrete is going to emerge on any of this other big ticket items as you said, there has been some speculation that the US is poised and the Modi government is also poised to do some media ticket – shall we say technology transfer ideas -- under the make in India programme based around FA-18 or the F-16.

Atul: Now, ever since this contract was up for sale, Americans have been trying to gain a back door entry to this because the aircraft that they pitched in initially was F-16. Now, the world knows that the -16 is now almost reaching it's level of redundancy. Indians rejected it actually outright. Then they said okay, if you don't want F-16, then we will probably pitch in with F-35s which are the fifth generation aircrafts. Now India is already in tie-up with Russia to produce fifth generation aircraft. Now how does that come into the picture? As I said initially, there is no naval version of aircraft that India is building with Russia. So this nuclear powered aircraft carrier that can carry 50 aircrafts comes into picture and that is how the whole game of selling F-35s of selling E2C Hawk-Eye and building India into an inter-operable network enabled warfare which is actually controlled by the United States.

Raghu: Your final word on what else you think is likely to be the outcome of the Obama-Modi meetings during the Modi visit.

Atul: You know, the likely outcome is the entire this whole edifice of this India-US relation is based on military. This is going to get strengthened further. The work on LSA is going to get enhanced. So LSA basically again is business. Majority of the military logistics, all military logistics, is actually privatized now. So when you are actually signing a logistics agreement with the United States, you you are actually giving entry to private bunch...

Raghu: Bunch of US contractors.

Atul: They are no contractors but they are now actually corporatized military companies. So how that is going to impact on your military, no study has been carried out on this agreement on this particular issue. How your military is going to get transformed no study has been carried on that particular issue. So it is a very half baked approach towards even military diplomacy, I would say.

Raghu: So to use a naval analogy. Could I say the India and the US the way they are going now seems to be entering choppy waters?

Atul: They are not entering choppy waters in fact, they are entering, they are getting into a cruising stations on in terms of moving on in the military field. The choppy water actually you see is on the soft power issues. If you see lot of cooperation and convergence on the hard power issues, which is the military issue, you see a divergence and discord in terms of the soft power issues. You have seen that the US is condemning religious freedom in India, it is condemning India's human rights records. India on the other hand is acting against the United States civil rights groups which are operating in India or their advocacy of civil rights in India. So this game is being played out. But you know this divergence and discord is what Modi requires. Because if this divergence and discord is not existing, it it doesn't seem to be there, then Modi doesn't look nationalistic because this entire game which is being played at the hardware plain or the hard power plain is actually detrimental to the India's interest in the long run. It is making basically India more dependent. So if Modi was to sell this kind of a thing....

Raghu: It is difficult of him.

Atul: It is difficult for him. So he has to show, to show that he is equal to the United States, these kinds of discords help.

Raghu: Thank you very much Commander Bhardwaj.

Atul: Thank you so much. .

DISCLAIMER: Please note that transcripts for Newsclick are typed from a recording of the program. Newsclick cannot guarantee their complete accuracy.