Opinion Poll: BJP and Congress Locked at 43% Votes Each in Gujarat

What seemed to be unthinkable a few years ago, might just happen in Gujarat Assembly elections slated for December 9 and 14 this year. According to a recent round of surveys conducted by CSDS-Lokniti for TV channel ABP News it seems Gujarat elections might be a close fight between BJP and Congress. Though it has been speculated for quite some time by political observers that BJP might be on shaky grounds in Gujarat, but still most observers did not believe that the saffron party can actually lose its strongest fortress.

The CSDS survey which was held in 3 rounds, found that the BJP and Congress both might get 43% votes in the upcoming elections. This would be a huge gain for the Congress as in the first round of the poll conducted in August had found that the Congress might get 29% votes. This will definitely ring a warning bell in the BJP camp as it shows a 16% dip in the vote share of the ruling party since August when it had 59 % votes according to the opinion poll. The surveys show a consistent increase in the Congress vote share from 29% in August to 41% in October and 43 % in November. Consequently, this means a steady dip in the BJP vote share from 59% in August to 47% in October and 43% in November.

The third round of the survey, released on Monday, was conducted from November 23 to November 30, in 200 polling booths, covering 3,225 voters across the state. The opinion poll also found that women voters have shifted from the BJP to the Congress. According to the poll, a month back 50% of women voters were favoring the BJP, but the vote share has gone down to 39% in November.

The poll also found that BJP might be losing its popularity amongst the trading community which has been its traditional vote bank. In the last round of the polls 43% traders favored the Congress, and BJP’s popularity has dipped by 4 points, going down to 40%. This means if the Congress keeps its momentum going it might come close to creating an upset in the saffron bastion.

The findings of the survey validate what political commentators have been saying for quite some time. The symptoms of what might happen in Assembly elections were seen in the 2015 Gujarat civic polls where even though the BJP retained all the seats in urban areas, in rural areas the Congress increased its vote share considerably , by winning 24 out of 30 district panchayats and 134 of 230 taluka panchayats. This clearly showed that rural Gujarat was becoming disillusioned with the government because of the deepening agrarian crises and the apathy of the government towards the farmers.

The patidar agitation for reservation and the state repression on it also caused a lot of anger in the community after its leader Hardik Patel was booked for sedition and 14 patidar youth were killed. The Dalit population which comprises about 7% state’s population have been angry with the government since the Una incident where 4 Dalit youth were stripped and beaten by “gau rakshaks”.

Apart from the patidars and Dalits even the trader community who have been devoted voters of the party for 22 years, are up in arms against the government after demonetization and GST policies broke the back of small businesses. To add to the long list of angered people are the Adivasis who have been ignored for the longest time. They comprise 14 % of the population. Many sections of common people are up in arms against the BJP govt., like ASHA workers who decided to campaign against the BJP after the government ignored their demands.

The myth of Gujarat model has been busted by the CAG reports, which clearly show the utter failure of the government on all the major developmental aspects. The anti incumbency and the increasing disillusionment with the government might well make this Gujarat election a historic one, as suggested by the opinion poll.