Telangana Polls: Amid Speculations of Hung Assembly, BLF and AIMIM Gain Significance

With only 10 days left for campaigning, Telangana is witnessing a high-pitched electoral battle. An analysis of several survey results which predicted the fate of political parties in the upcoming elections revealed that there is a certain possibility of a hung assembly in the state.

The elections are to be held on December 7 in all the 119 constituencies and the results will be declared on December 11.

In early September, when the ruling Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) government under K Chandrasekhar Rao’s chief ministership dissolved the assembly and announced their party’s list of contesting candidates, it appeared that the TRS is ahead in the electoral race and the remaining parties were taken to surprise. However, after nearly three months of campaigning and just days before the polling, the political situation has turned around - while the TRS leaders are being questioned about their unimplemented promises, the Congress-led alliance ‘Prajakutami’ which includes Telugu Desam Party, Professor Kodandaram’s Telangana Jana Samithi and CPI; the Bahujan Left Front (BLF), a joint front of 28 left and Bahujan organisations; All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM); and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are reaching out to the people reminding them of the failures of the government.

What the Opinion Polls Say?

The polling agency, Centre for Voting Opinion and Trends in Election Research (CVoter), has predicted that the Congress-TDP alliance will defeat the TRS. The survey predicted that the TRS would win only a dismal 42 seats, while the Congress led alliance would bag 64, the BJP 4 and the others would win in 9 seats. According to CVoter, Prajakutami is expected to grab around 33.9% of the vote share, compared to 29.4% for the TRS.

Also Read: Telangana Assembly Elections: No Place for BJP’s Divisive Tricks

In the previous 2014 elections, while the TRS party had won 63 seats with 34.3% vote share, the Congress won 21 seats with 25.2% vote share and TDP had won 14.7% vote share. This means that the combined vote share of Congress and TDP equals to 39.9%, which is 5.6% more vote share than that of the BJP. However, it should be noted that at the time of the state’s assembly dissolution, the TRS held 90 seats, the Congress (13), the AIMIM (7), the BJP (5), the TDP (3) and the CPI(M) held one seat. That is, in the last four years, 27 sitting MLAs have defected from parties including the Congress and TDP. Now the curious question is whether the supporters of the MLAs who defected to the TRS would support the TRS?

In a major setback to the TRS, Chevella MP Konda Vishweswar Reddy had recently resigned from the TRS and joined the Congress. Vishweswar Reddy had said, “The reason for my resignation is clear. I left the TRS not because I was not respected there, but because I feared losing my self-respect. The TRS has cheated the people in many ways and I didn't want to be a part of it as I had also made promises.”

The recently released CNX-Times Now opinion poll has predicted that the TRS might return to power for a second term in the state. According to the poll, the TRS is predicted to win 70 seats, leaving 31 to the Congress, the TDP would win in 2 seats, the AIMIM would win 8 seats, the BJP in 3 and the other parties would win in 5 seats.

Speaking with Newsclick, Samba Shiva, who is campaigning for BLF, said that their alliance would win in at least 6 constituencies. “If there is a hung assembly, the BLF and AIMIM would emerge as the king makers,” Samba Shiva said.

Also Read: Telangana Polls: Has the KCR Magic Faded Away?

Another survey by the Prof. G.V. Sudhakar Rao Foundation,  conducted in May this year, had predicted a hung Assembly for the state if the polls were held then. The survey found that there will be a close contest between the TRS and the Congress, wherein both the parties would get 30% vote share with the rest being shared by the others.

In order to form the government, the political parties would require support from 60 MLAs. With the regional media in the state also predicting a possibility of hung assembly, the BLF and Asaddudin Owaisi’s AIMIM are gaining significance.