Truncated J&K:Master-stroke or a Monumental Folly

Jury is out on whether the abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A by the Government of India is a masterstroke or a monumental folly, having brought about a situation in Kashmir where political dialogue and autonomy have been removed from the agenda. A “special status” enjoying entity has been reduced to  the rank of a centrally ruled/administered area. Abrogation was brought about arbitrarily without bothering to take the J&K Assembly’s consent, as required under constitutional law. Let alone local people having any say in the matter, they have been imprisoned in their own homes and their everyday life strictly regulated to ensure that they remain silenced. It is of interest to note that while the BJP government tom toms “Digital India” and pushes for bringing more and more digital transactions in India, in J&K government snaps internet and mobile telephony at their whim and fancy,for varying lenghts of time, thus crippling business, profession, banks, educational institutions, and ennumerable everyday chores etc where net connectivity has become vital. As a result, Indian rule in Kashmir opens a new page of oppression in which people can not assert themselves or protect their interests and their well-being. As a result, the choice for people in truncated and centrally administered Kashmir is reduced to choosing between a rock and a hard place: to submit to the new facts on the ground where they are marginal players, or to persist with their resistance. 

What Indian move has done is to boost the ranks of separatists by the demolition of even the pro-Indian political parties in Kashmir who are no longer considered useful in the new ‘arrangement’ being put in place. Their leaders are discredited and under detention. What is intriguing is that the Indian army which hitherto had maintained that military can only restore authority but solution requires political initiative, has now submitted to the government’s demand for coercively silencing the Kashmiris. All this enables the BJP to push its ideological agenda, including to usher in demograhic transformation of Kashmir. What remains to be seen is that while repression will mount and people suffer, which way will people’s shared history and lived experience of suffering propel them to move?  

Making of a new Crisis

In all the scenarios which the policy and decison-makers have factored in as well as prepared for, there is just no way they could have or can predict with any degree of certainty exactly how will people  react, knowing only that, they will. BJP has assured its new and old camp followers that the government will manage everything and that the world community cannot browbeat India, because government’s way to abrogate the  provisions is the “permanent solution” India is looking for. It is one thing to lock down people for weeks (August 27th, 2019, being 22 days of lockdown), block all communication from August 1, and dangle the carrot of incremental relaxation,  but what happens on the ground may be entirely different. Did the authorities factor in that people may just opt for passive resistance? That more than armed militancy people may actually prefer a non-violent mass manifestation, because of the formidable force deployment by the government and the relentless operations/crackdowns being carried out? What happens if the government goes ‘hammer and tong’ against such non-violent manifestations, which a comunally dogmatic and power drunk government is programmed to do. Will it not boost insurgency as well as attract inimical forces, waiting to cash in on Kashmir’s sullied waters? All this will result in augmented repression, but will this also not queer the pitch for the government to “manage” J&K? Or that longer it takes to declare “normalcy”, which in Indian parlance means peace brought about through the barrel of the gun,  international public opinion as well as Indian opinion, which is right now high on a cocktail of jingoism, will make the situation turn sour for the Indian rulers.  

Arguably, the government having taken the step to turn Kashmir into a virtual colony ruled by New Delhi, can also back-track to make amends and change tack. A strong right wing government, facing a weak opposition and a media willing to do its bidding, for instance has the opportunity and the capacity to do so. Unfortunately, the step the BJP government has taken leaves no room for back-peddaling. Having invested in “full merger” of Kashmir they are more likely to take it to its logical end than abort it. Having unleashed the forces of jingoism all kind of scenarios are openly being discussed in corridors of power, while there are few takers left in India for autonomy. As for Kashmiris who went through the experience of witnessing their autonomy erode, and are living through its abrogation now, know that autonomy has run its course. So today there is no middle ground available or even possible. Middle ground matters to authorities when the going gets rough and the government has to revise its approach. This opportunity is no longer available.

The premature celebration across the country  over abrogation of Article 370 and 35A for Jammu and Kashmir reflects how far the country has regressed. There is little concern shown for imposing collective punishment on Kashmiris, reducing them to status of conquered people, forcing them to stay indoors under curfew, detentions of 2300-6000 activists including 173 leaders,  and thousands of youth earlier targetted for being ‘stone pelters’ are once again being summoned to the police stations and detained where they are reportedly beaten and threatened with dire consequences. Local media has been silenced, and fake news put out by officials propound. Any local reporter daring to file stories about protests, clashes, use of pellets and bullets and/or casualties is told to be wary of the consequences. All this against an extraordinary deployment of  950,000 soldiers, or a million strong force to manage & control eight million Kashmiri Muslims i.e. one armed soldier for eight unarmed Kashmiri civilians. 

In other words, for all its beauty Kashmir has been made ugly by the obtrusive presence of armed soldiers, roads covered by concertina wires, bunkers, checkposts and camps visible all around  and forces carry out aggressive patrolling, knowing that they are free to inflict pain and impose a heavy cost on local population. That this may impact negotiations currently nearing finishing line between GoI and the Naga groups especially NSCN(IM), has not dawned on government supporters. Especially, when NSCN(IM) in a letter to the Indian Prime Minister recently reiterated its demand for a separate flag and a constitution, in order to clinch the deal. Precisely the symbols of autonomy which J&K had so far enjoyed.

Overwhelming majority of Indians do not care for the sanctity of sovereign agreements  (Instrument of Accession), constitutional gurantees (Article 370) or even the political fallout of a decison based on a dogma. As for democracy and people’s rights, less said the better. In any case, elections in the union territory of J&K will take place only by 2021, because Union Home Ministry can formally ask the Election Commission to begin the process of delimitation, only after October 31, 2019. Delimitation exercise, says the EC, will itself take a year. In the name of “national interest” not just casualties, but  suspension of constitutional freedoms, and even lies are considered kosher.

Arguably, most nation-states pursue this path where laws do not matter, rules are meant to be broken, repression is the preference  and forcing people to submit to majoritarian diktat, the norm. Except, circumstances have changed and we are living in 21st century and not in 16th,17th,18th,19th or even 20th century. J&K is an unresolved dispute between India and Pakistan dating back to partition, and UN has been seized of the matter since 1948.  India could not prevent the fact that UNSC has after a 50 year break brought the Kashmir Question back on its agenda. And India has to ride the coat-tails of US (and to a lesser degree France) to blunt criticism of its Kashmir folly because on its own it lacks the clout and pelf to shut everybody’s mouths. And now that UNSC is seized of the matter, coming months and year s will see heightened activity by Indian diplomats to damage control. If situation remains as grim, the pressure will grow and prove troublesome  for India.

Freedom to screech

Officials also ignore the contradictions that are also coming to fore. For instance in Jammu local leaders of BJP, Congress, National Panthers Party  etc who welcomed abrogation of Article 35A (which protected the land and reserved jobs for locals) are now raising the demand for a domicile status for the locals to protect their land and jobs. Some elements are pitching for Jammu as a separate full state in the name of restoring Dogra pride. Many of the leaders espousing this move have been detained in Jammu. What this means is that a people, primarily the lower castes Dogra Hindus, Dalits and Muslims who acquired land rights, thanks to the radical land reforms under Sheikh Abdullah’s regime (1948-52), are chary of losing their much coveted land and job opportunity to outsiders. Moreover, the fact that Jammu based parties and their leaders have demanded that their land and jobs be protected lends legitimacy to Kashmiri desire to protect itself and restrict land and job grabs by outsiders. This provides a bridge between the two regions and the two communities. So to believe that BJP can with ease bring in outsiders in Jammu, or set up Hindu settlements in Kashmir  is easier said than done. If anything, threat of land alienation and heightened competition for jobs between locals and outsiders will add fuel to fire. 

Regretably, Indian judiciary has refused to take up Habeas Corpus pleas, and fast-track hearing on abrogation of articles 370 and 35A. With thousands of people detained on mere suspicion that they can gather atleast  ten persons each and trigger protests, means that spree of detentions/arrests can carry on without fear of judiciary striking them down. Thus Judiciary’s role in giving a stamp of approval to executive orders in the past  as well as inability to provide succor to victims of security forces aggression today does not inspire confidence that those aggrieved will get justice.  

India’s Corporate media has demonstrated that they are no better than government propagandists who merely amplify or rationalise whatever the government wants them to propagate. Most media outlets also deflect attention by going hammer and tong at India’s ardent enemy Pakistan. Reporters working for corporate media houses defend twisting of truth and planting of fake news as necessary in “national interest”. Indeed so does Press Council of India which was set up to defend press freedom. These appear to be par for the course for a media blinded by bigotry & jingoism and represent a new cult of falsification. But it also means that  it would be easy to counter their lies because they are brazen about it and flaunt it as “nationalism”. I draw attention to “Factcheck: Vankaiah Naidu used fake quote to claim Ambedkar opposed to Article 370” [ Ajoy Ashirwad Mahaprashasta, The Wire August 23rd, 2019] for one such blatant fakery promoted by the Vice President of India. He passed off something Balraj Madhok, leader of Jana Sangh, wrote as spoken by Ambedkar. Worse still, the newspaper in which this fakery appeared did not even bother to offer an apology  to its readers,when this was exposed. 

Social media carries a mixed bag  of opinions. Rightwing politicians and courtiers of the new “Dilli Durbar” give vent to their misogyny and bigotry stooping lower than low. A serving Chief Minister spoke about Kashmiri women as though they are ‘a trophy of war’, to be bought,sold, acquired. Others are waiting to grab land and gloat over the prospects  of realising their predatory fantasy. In this insidious game venomous speech and action have become synonymous with “national interest” . All criminals or foul mouths need to do is to utter patriotic rhetoric, wave national flag and/or shout glory to “Mother India”, and their crimes get ‘washed away’. People led by BJP leaders supported the accused who abducted, tortured, gangraped, and then murdered an eight year old girl child in Kathua in J&K carried the national flag, shouted slogans  to theglory of “Mother India”, and damned everyone opposed to them as “anti-nationals”. 

Autonomy as  Figleaf                                  

The fact is that autonomy as provided in Article 370 got eroded through the very aegis of Article 370 decades back. From merely three subjects in 1947 to 295 on which centre could legislate prior to abrogation, marks this journey of erosion. The last vestige of autonomy was the status of Permanent Resident, Article 35A, which prevented alienation of land and protected jobs for locals. Except there jobs were few to come by and armed forces are in control of 100,000 acres of land.The central public units  violate land laws & High Court ban on construction for instance in Gulmarg, Bhabha Atomic Research Corporation went ahead with constructing a guest house for their personnel. Thus the proverbial “shell” of the hollowed out Article 370, was retained to cover-up the fact that it has been New Delhi which ruled over J&K ever since Sheikh Abdullah was arrested in August 1953. 

In other words, what began as erosion of autonomy under the Congress, BJP and other governments since 1953, now stands abrogated and local population is thereby reduced to a status of subjects, in this republic of citizens. It is the formal dimunition of the people through abrogation which we today confront. Needless to add this sets a dangerous precedent for India as a whole where any other local community which falls foul of the government can end up losing its status as citizens and can be reduced to a new form of subjecthood/adversary.

Its  worth noting that a truncated J&K is also a New Delhi ruled territory where central government has now full control over land,  law and order, de-limitation, fiscal policy, administration etc. To celebrate this humiliating transformation of J&K from formally enjoying “Special Status” to now being reduced to a UT where local population stands dis-empowered, marks India’s entry into world’s roster of tyrannical State. 

Meanwhile,  the Union Home Minister had boasted in the Parliament that the dispute over J&K is now confined to recovering territory occupied by Pakistan and China. Around the same time India’s foreign minister informed  hisChinese counter-part that there is no territorial claim being advanced by India by abrogating Article 370 and 35A and that they continue to respect the Line of Actual Control with China and the Line of Control with Pakistan. 

The BJP government claims that abrogation of Article 370 and 35A will end terrorism and separatism and usher in development. Nothing could be farther from the truth. The seeds of separatism were sowed in 1953 itself from when autonomy began to be eroded. Its abrogation today means that there is not even a  talking point for any political dialogue, because as far as Hindutva is concerned, abrogation has solved the problem.

As for the claim of “development” the question to ask is if any meaningful investment can come to Kashmir, if the situation remains unstable and risky. Will investors find the recurrent snapping of internet connectivity and mobile telephony conducive to carrying out their business? To believe that Indian corporate houses who show great reluctance to invest in India will somehow  show their ‘capitalist animal spirit’ in a conflict ridden Kashmir with highest frequency of internet snapping in the world, is a misconception. It is worth noting, that while J&K moves to host its first investor summit in October 2019, in early August the central government shelved a Rs 1500 cr project to build a dry port in Kashmir, which was awarded to Dubai Ports Group in February 2018. Therefore, if an ongoing project could be closed down, why would Indian corporate houses risk investing money  in a militarily unstable region like Kashmir? 

Reality and Rhetoric

Rulers have a tendency to over-read their own power and influence and believe that everything can be ‘managed’. So the Government leaders and officials boast that government has factored in all possible scenarios and can overcome whatever challenge posed to them. They also believe that by the time BJP government relaxes curbs the local population will be so hungry for respite  that they would be unwilling to offer fight to India. Indians have been sold the line that there is international support for what India has done. Others are happy that there is little international support for Pakistan. Some go so far as to rejoice that in contemporary world where big powers get away with aggression and suppression, India has now joined their ranks and from now on can get away with whatever it does to its Kashmiri Muslim population. To many this is mark of India’s growing clout. In such amoral times when few will speak up for Kashmiris in India, the question that bedevils discerning Indians is why is the Indian government is so frightened  that it had to deploy nearly a million armed forces personnel to control 8 million unarmed Kashmiris? Just a month before the abrogation of Article 370 and 35A official propaganda claimed that infiltration was down, recrutiment of locals to militant ranks is now in trickles, militant numbers have shrunk, and normalcy was round the corner. But days leading upto the abrogation Amarnath and other yatras were cancelled and pilgrims and tourists were asked to immediately return home. It was officially claimed that heightened alert was on account of an impending suicide attack. Using this as a pretext the government augmented its forces to 950,000 soldiers​ to bring the people to heel.  

Pakistan’s room for manouver over Kashmir is limited due to its debilitating economy, dire need for financial bailout, ‘grey listing’ by FATF committee etc prevent it from doing anything adventurous, whatever the rhetoric. With infiltration low and Pakistan under severe international scrutiny there is not much it can do. The predicament for Pakistan, which is a party to the Kashmir dispute, is what it can  do which will satisfy its own people, and also make a dent in the international public opinion regarding the plight of the Kashmiris. What lends strength to Pakistan’s limitations is the latest reports which claim that ‘chatter’ among militants monitored by Indian intelligence indicate that Pakistani militants are reluctant to go to Kashmir and have been “heard” saying that fighting India is the “responsibility of the Kashmiris themselves”.[“Pak based Ultras reluctant to cross over to Valley”,TNS, The Tribune 26th August 2019]. However, it is important to note that this restraint or reluctance does not apply to Al Qaeda and ISIS  foreign fighters in Afghanistan. India should be worried over the likely entry of Al Qaeda and ISIS foreign fighters, because these fighters will take violence to new levels, as they make no distinction between combatants and civilians.

What should also concern Indian Army  is that its engagement in internal war in J&K will carry on for few more decades, albeit with one seminal difference;  it has to now deliver a military solution because there is no possibility left anymore of a political resolution of the J&K dispute. This shift carries its own risks. For all the tall claims of Indian armed forces of being ready to fight “two and half wars”, the fact is that no army, however strong, likes to face two adversaries while they are simultaneously confronted with an hostile population in the hinterland. If in addition they also have to fend off Al Qaeda and ISIS, then Indian army’s troubles are going to mount.  

Moreover,  BJP has shown that it does not believe in ‘winning hearts and minds’. Reports seem to suggest that Kashmiri police and civil administration staff now play a marginal role.  Such new facts being created on the ground will make the movement more militant and not less. A Hindutva radicalised Indian State & public opinion will meet its resistance counter-part. If the government factored this possibility and opted for such a course then its likely that they expect to derive some advantage from this. However, risk for the country and its people outweigh possible gain  for BJP. 

Equating Palestine and Kashmir

The conjoining of Palestine and Kashmir among people of the world will now pick up.  Indians may, quite like Israelis, dismiss world public opinion. However, unlike Israel which is bankrolled by US, the Indian Union takes pride in projecting itself as an independent entity which takes autonomous decisions, in its own interest. This makes them vulnerable to public pressure. Israel can live without friends, other than US. But India can not survive without friends in its immediate and extended neighbourhood. Nor should the government under-estimate the influence of US and European public opinion.  There are already plentiful signs that the glowing account of India’s “success” in UN or elsewhere were empty boast. For instance ruling BJP’s claimed success for India in the recent United Nationas Security Council closed door meeting. However the fact that for the first time in nearly fifty years UNSC took up Kashmir issue for discussion means that from now on Kashmir will remain on their agenda. 

Even Russia, a longtime supporter of India, referred uncharacteristically to UN Charter and relevant UN resolutions  while talking about J&K. Britain too baulked at coming out in support of India and supported the idea of UNSC closed door meeting as well as pushed for a “public statement” after that. As for banking on US or France to bail India out, less said the better. While both US and France will extract their own ‘pound of flesh’, the US can not afford to leave Pakistan unmollified.India’s surrender to US over Iran in exchange for help in getting Masood Azhar listed as “global terrorist”, exhibits India’s weakness vis a vis US. And the high price India had to pay to the US for its help with listing just a single indiviual. What price will the US demand for shielding India from earning international opprobrium? Besides, US is desperate to “extricate” itself from the mess it created in Afghanistan before US presidential polls in November 2020. Thus, pressure will be on India too as time draws close, not to further queer the pitch for Pakistan, whose help is critical to pressure Taliban to enable US troop pullout. Besides, Pakistan has moved its forces to the eastern border with India and warned US that India’s move on Kashmir has made it difficult for it to single mindedly focus on Afghanistan. So is the US just offering a long rope to India to see how the pacification campaign proceeds in J&K, before it begins to exert pressure?  

Anyhow, with the genie of annexation  out of the bottle, the “nationalist” government may find that reality does not quite match their rhetoric  at home. Triumphalism and celebration which is widespread in India will also begin to erode when it hits Indians that situation in J&K has actually worsened thanks to the decision of the BJP government. 

Ironically,and for all its “nationalist” pretensions, BJP’s Kashmir policy has ended up lending legitmacy to the demand for right of self-determination voiced by the Kashmir movement. How? With autonomy out of the way & political resolution  ruled out, only military solution is being pursued. Room for course correction has vanished. For all those opposed to this war against our own people and desirous of a peaceful democratic solution, the talking point now can only be self-determination, i.e. to ascertain people’s wishes through refrendum, as  military suppression and militancy escalates and transforms the landscape of Kashmir. Consequently, if Kashmir, contrary to official narrative, continues to remain “Disturbed”, BJP may find itself hoisted by its own petard and praise being showered today can turn into a curse tomorrow.