Attack on Iran: It’s Neither About Nukes Nor Democracy

Amid a series of prevailing crises, a fresh crisis has hit the world, again courtesy US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The unprecedented war against Iran comes close on the heels of the US abducting the sitting President of Venezuela in the dead of the night and the continuing genocide in Gaza. 

The Trump regime has offered a series of justifications for the war -- ranging from Iran secretly enriching uranium to build nuclear bombs and posing an existential threat to Israel to helping the Iranians remove a tyrannical regime, and subsequently, posing an imminent threat to the US. Trump and his administration keep oscillating between these justifications. However, Trump's main thrust has been to dispossess Iran of nuclear weapons and usher in democracy. 

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), an intergovernmental organisation that seeks to promote the peaceful use of nuclear energy and inhibit its use for any military purpose, has reiterated that it did not find any evidence of nuclear-grade uranium during inspections. Several top global security experts, such as Joe Cirincione, who headed the Ploughshares Fund (a public grant-making foundation focused on nuclear non-proliferation and conflict resolution), assert that there was no imminent nuclear threat from Iran. Instead, the goal is to change the regime and expand hegemony in the region with Israel by turning Iran into a vassal state like other Gulf countries to control the world's energy matrix. The US has so far failed to provide any credible evidence of an imminent danger from Iran.  

The way Trump chose to accomplish these narratives, involved eliminating the spiritual leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the top military brass through one of the most powerful conventional bombs in history. Besides, US and Israeli forces have blown up schools, hospitals and residential areas, which included the horrific murder of 160 primary school girls.

In lieu of this devastation, Trump has talked about installing a Great and Acceptable leader(s)” of his choice. Though he hasn’t mentioned it in so many words, the US has long been throwing its weight behind Reza Pehalvi, the eldest son of last King of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pehalvi, whose dictatorial regime was overthrown in a popular uprising led by the students. Reza himself is pitching to lead a transitional government in Iran after the end of the current Iranian regime that would lead to free and fair elections. (Meanwhile, as per reports, Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, has been chosen as Iran’s Supreme Leader by the clerical body).

The events leading to the unilateral, unjust, unprovoked, and imposed war clearly demonstrate that the justifications given by Trump and Netanyahu are far from the truth and they had other ulterior motives for starting it.

There are four main counterpoints that explain the tearing eagerness with which Netanyahu and Trump went for all-out war with Iran, a conflict that every day has put a colossal cost on American citizens. On the fifth day of the war, the Trump administration was slated to have put a bill of $850 billion to Congress to replace the depleted arsenal, which consisted of costly Tomahawk and Patriot missiles and lethal bombs.

Impending elections amidst corruption charges

Both Netanyahu and Trump are facing elections and both are witnessing dwindling public support because of serious corruption charges. Just days before launching a strike on Iran, Netanyahu appeared before the Tel Aviv District Court for the 79th time on February 23. According to the charges, Netanyahu maintained a bribery relationship with businessman Shaul Elovitch. As part of that relationship, Netanyahu and his family allegedly made various demands of the Elovitch family regarding media coverage of their affairs on the Walla news website controlled by Elovitch. The requests allegedly included limiting coverage of Netanyahu’s political rivals. The court proceedings are continuing amid deep divisions in Israel over Netanyahu’s formal request for a pardon from President Isaac Herzog.

Similarly, President Trump is facing an array of alleged corrupt transactions during his current term as the 47th President of the US. A tracker prepared by the Campaign Legal Center (CLC)— a non-partisan legal organisation dedicated to solving the wide range of challenges facing American democracy—extensively catalogues the benefits Trump has put up for sale and what they cost, highlighting the most egregious examples and explaining how these transactions have adversely impacted the public.

The Ghost of Epstein Files

The steadily opening Pandora's Box of the infamous Epstein Files is further eroding public trust in these leaders, just as it has done across the world.  The US House of Representatives Document Repository contains damning allegations against President Trump in the form of explosive tapes recorded by author Michael Wolff, showing a nexus between Trump and sexual predator Jeffrey Epstein. 

In the latest developments, an under-pressure Department of Justice (DoJ) informed news outlets that 47,635 files were offline for additional review and are expected to be ready for re-production by the end of this week.  

“Our team is working around the clock to address victim concerns, redact personally identifiable information and any images of a sexual nature,” according to Justice Department spokesperson Natalie Baldassarre. “All responsive documents will be repopulated online once proper redactions are made,” she added. 

The DoJ was virtually forced to admit withholding this large tranche of Epstein Files, promising to post them online after redactions due to exemplary investigations by The Independent and NPR (National Public Radio). 

On February 24, barely four days before President Trump joined the war against Iran, NPR, a US-based independent, non-profit media organisation, revealed that the DoJ withheld some Epstein files related to allegations that President Trump sexually abused a minor. It alleged that the DoJ also removed some documents from the public database, which contained accusations against Epstein that also mention Trump.

NPR's investigation found dozens of pages that appear to be catalogued by the Justice Department but not shared publicly.

The ghost of Epstein Files has also ostensibly made Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his coterie subservient to American and Israeli interests. This clearly reflects in the US diktat on allowing India 30 days waiver to buy Russian oil.   

Israel's Hegemonistic Ambitions in West Asia

Right now, this may seem like a conjecture or conspiracy theory but there is a growing possibility that Trump was forced to join the war against Iran to further Israel's hegemonistic ambitions in West Asia. The key to this riddle is again embedded in the Epstein Files. Many documents released so far suggest that Epstein was a trained spy of Mossad. 

Documents released by the DoJ revealed that a confidential FBI (Federal Bureau of Investigation) informant claimed to have become convinced that disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein was operating as an agent for Israeli intelligence.

The informant, referred to as a confidential human source (CHS) also alleged that Epstein had a close personal relationship with former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak and claimed Epstein had been “trained as a spy under him.”

The suggested links between Epstein and Mossad give rise to speculation that Israel possesses the raw footage, photographs, or call logs implicating several world leaders, such as President Trump and several top US officials. This forced Trump to enter Israel's war against Iran. 

Plummeting Ratings

History contains numerous examples of heads of state using war to create a hysteria of existential threat among citizens to reverse plummeting approval ratings. According to The Economist, President Trump's ratings have plummetted, especially after the announcement of the immigration policy. Trump’s net approval on inflation also remains negative at -24. 

Early surveys after the beginning of the Iran war suggest the war is unpopular. According to an Economist/YouGov poll conducted a week before the first strikes, just 27% of Americans favoured an attack. But experts agree that a quick result with few or no American casualties can help Trump turn the tide and seek public approval during the midterm elections in November this year.

Similarly, Netanyahu is again trying to bury corruption charges by seeking to increase his support with a win over Iran, similar to what occurred during his military successes against Hezbollah. Legally, the elections for the 26th Knesset (Israeli parliament) are scheduled for October 27, this year, but there is a strong chance that Netanyahu might move them earlier to September or July to encash his popularity. 

Possible Scenarios After War Ends

There is no consensus on the post-war scenario. Pro-US and Israel hawk experts, such as former four-star General and former CIA Director David Petraeus and former National Security Advisor John Bolton (who advised Trump during his first term as US President), believe that this will end the tyrannical IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Core) regime and pave the way for a US- and Israel-friendly popular democratic regime. However, many caution that this action will turn Iran into a failed state with different ethnic insurgent groups, such as the Kurds and Baloch engaged in a power struggle. 

Experts in Predictive History like Professor Jiang Xueqin (who successfully predicted Donald Trump becoming US President and attacking Iran alongside Israel) and Douglas Macgregor, former senior advisor to the US Secretary of Defence, claim that Iran will withstand the onslaught because it has learned sufficient, suitable lessons from previous attacks, and the US will lose. Prof Jiang argues that Iran will inflict enough damage on the critical infrastructure of the GCC countries which are the lynchpins of the US economy.

Regardless of what experts say, the fact remains that the two most powerful leaders have unleashed an asymmetrical war against a sovereign nation on the pretext of a fake propaganda, to bury the ghost of Epstein Files and corruption charges and they intend to benefit from the deaths of thousands or probably millions of innocent people. History will remember them very unkindly.

The writer is a senior independent journalist based in Delhi. The views are personal.