Haryana: How ‘Kisan, Jawan, Pehelwan’ Are Shaping Electoral Outcome

After ruling Haryana for 10 years, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is on the backfoot in the state. During the ongoing election campaign (voting is on October 5), the party is facing the massive wrath of kisan (farmers), jawan (youth) and pehelwan (wrestlers).

The harsh and unprecedented punitive measures taken against farmers agitating against the Narendra Modi regime’s farm laws in 2021 and the recent extreme steps of the BJP government of Haryana in preventing them from coming to Delhi (to protest) and non-fulfilment of their other demands, have angered them beyond measure.

And the jawan (youth) is incensed at the BJP-ruled Centre because of its Agniveer policy of not providing 75% of those recruited to Indian Army for a period four years any pensionary benefits. Haryana’s youth, regardless of caste, usually opt for agriculture and the Armed Forces for livelihood. Hence, a convoluted Agniveer policy has created massive disaffection among them against the Modi regime and BJP.

And, of course, the pehelwan, wrestlers of Haryana, particularly the women, who brought glory to the country by winning medals at international sports events, such as the Olympics, were treated badly by the police when they agitated against BJP MP Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh, who during his tenure as president of the Wrestling Federation of India, allegedly sexually harassed them. These wrestlers belong to the Jat community or come from poor socio-economic backgrounds. They registered an FIR against Singh after they approached the  Supreme Court, which directed them to do so.

The seething anger and anguish of Kisan, Jawan and Pehelwan directed against BJP represents the outrage of the entire nation because bitterness is festering among these sections against 10 years of Modi rule owing to rising levels of unemployment, growing atrocities inflicted on women and high levels of inflation.

The combined fury of ‘Kisan, Jawan and Pehelwan’ has put BJP in an unenviable electoral position with strong possibilities of losing more seats in the Assembly compared with what they won in 2019. Such a bleak scenario for the party is a possibility, which won five out of 10 Lok Sabha seats in the 18th Lok Sabha elections held in May this year. It had won all 10 in the 2019 general elections. This time, Congress won rest of the five seats. BJP’s vote share also plummeted while Congress’s tally was better.

When internationally acclaimed wrestler Vinesh Phogat proved her worth in the recently concluded Paris Olympics and reached the finals after beating the former Olympic gold medallist, none from the Modi government extended best wishes. Only when she was disqualified to compete in finals because she weighed extra 100 grams beyond the prescribed limit of 50 kilos, did the Prime Minister express shock that she would not be allowed to wrestle for either the gold or silver medals.

When Phogat came back to India, she was accorded a rousing welcome right from the Delhi airport to her village in Haryana covering a distance of 130 kilometers. The way she was treated by the Indian officials in Paris Olympics after she was disqualified shocked people of the country in general, and in Haryana in particular. Her humiliation represented the humiliation suffered by women in spite of the hard work they put in all spheres of life. She is now contesting for an Assembly seat on a Congress ticket.

Rahul Gandhi’s Rally

It is against that backdrop that the disenchantment of people of Haryana against BJP and the surge in Congress’s popularity in the electoral arena in Haryana must be seen. Congress appears to have an edge over BJP in the battle of perception. The two rallies of Rahul Gandhi attracting more people in sharp contrast to Modi’s rallies, which were interpreted as ‘flop shows’, have created a better electoral ambience for Congress.

The presence of Kumari Selja, a prominent Dalit leader of Congress, in Rahul Gandhi’s second rally and the simultaneous attendance of top leader of the party, Bhupinder Singh Hooda, two-time Chief Minister and four-time MP, dispelled the much-talked about rift among them and affirmed their unity and solidarity.  

BJP’s Polarising Strategy

Given its demographic profile, Haryana has fewer Muslims and has never been conducive to BJP’s growth and expansion. However, BJP could form the government in 2014 after it secured a majority on its own. This could largely be attributed to Modi’s emergence as a national leader that year, especially in North India.

The advent of the BJP government in Haryana in 2014 and the choice of M L Khattar, a Punjabi, and not belonging to the politically significant Jat community, as Chief Minister, inevitably flowed from the party’s political strategy to pit Jats against non-Jats for electoral dividends.  It thought that other backward classes, other castes and Dalits constituting non-Jats, could be mobilised to politically polarise the society by using them against Jats for sustaining BJP’s hold over power on a recurrent basis.

In March this year, Khattar was dropped as Chief Minister and a lesser known Nayab Singh Saini, an OBC (Other Backward Classes) leader, was appointed with a calculated objective of appealing to OBCs to vote for BJP. Such a plan has not succeeded and now many BJP leaders of the state are not being allowed by people to enter villages and campaign for the party.  

Hindutva was also used by the state BJP leadership to polarise people on the basis of religion to gain Hindu votes. Therefore, the miniscule Muslim population of Haryana was targeted and many of them were even killed by cow vigilantes, an act often defended by ruling party leaders.

The spread of communal tension a few months ago in the peaceful Mewat region, where Muslims have been living for centuries without any riots, was also attributed to BJP’s strategy of unifying non-Jats in the name of Hindutva and consolidate their electoral support base. Such tragic violence was accompanied by demolishing the houses of people, most of whom are Muslims and many Hindus. However, such a strategy of polarisation in the name of Hindutva did not gain traction.

The BJP leadership thought that the polarised atmosphere it engineered across the country following the scrapping of special status of Kashmir under Article 370, would enable it to repeat its 2014 electoral performance in Haryana in 2019 and secure majority for the party. Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah stridently sought t votes for BJP while campaigning during the 2019 Assembly elections on the grounds that “history was created” by the Modi regime in “displaying rare courage” in doing away with special status of J&K. But the party lost majority and formed a government that year with the support of the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), the leaders of which had severely criticised PM Modi earlier. 

Anti- Incumbency Confronts BJP

After 10 years of rule, BJP  is facing massive anti-incumbency, with  Modi’s two consecutive election rallies in Haryana aimed at giving BJP a huge push ahead of Congress turning out to be fiascos. The tracking of trends in social media concerning Haryana elections generate an unmistakable impression that Modi’s appeal has lost its persuasive value and people are no longer enamoured with him and his speeches.

In contrast, Rahul Gandhi has touched the hearts of thousands attending his massive rallies because he spoke of the harrowing experiences of numerous young men of Haryana who spent lakhs of rupees to enter the US illegally without passport (the Dunki route) just because there was no hope of earning livelihood in their home state. He said he met a man from Haryana in the US living in precarious conditions and on coming back to India, met his parents in a Haryana village. He saw his son crying “Papa, Papa” after seeing him in a video conference. Rahul’s moving statement in the rally that while Modi peddles his brand in Haryana its children are crying to physically see their fathers and have them back in their families, brought tears to the eyes of those who heard him. He promised that Congress would wipe out these tears.

The Congress leader’s emphasis on social justice and conduct of caste census connects people to the issue of saving the Constitution which became an electoral issue during the 18th general elections.

A New Tryst With Destiny

If the people of Haryana reject BJP and choose Congress around the issues woven around “Kisan, Jawan and Pehelwan”, it would further heighten Rahul Gandhi’s stature and standing far surpassing Modi, who with BJP’s loss of majority in the Lok Sabha, would get considerably weakened. This will also have a cascading effect and BJP and Modi may find it hard to face the electorate in Maharashtra (due for Assembly elections) to secure power.

The outcome of the Haryana elections is poised to be a kind of tryst with destiny in the people’s quest to uphold the Constitution and Constitutional vision of India.

S N Sahu served as Officer on Special Duty to President of India K R Narayanan. The views are personal.